Liberty vs. Western Kentucky Prediction, Odds, Trends and Key Players for College Football Week 9
By Reed Wallach
Liberty heads to Bowling Green, Ky. to take on Western Kentucky in a battle of the top two teams in Conference USA this season.
The Flames had a scare last week against Middle Tennessee, but are still undefeated in its first season in the conference under new head coach Jamey Chadwell. The team will face Western Kentucky, who has been near the top of the conference for several years, but may be regressing back to the mean despite having a high level quarterback in Austin Reed.
WKU has particularly struggled in the second half of games. Could that be driving the price towards Liberty, who is a considerable road favorite?
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Liberty vs. Western Kentucky Odds, Spread and Total
Get more college football coverage with our Week 9 preview, focusing on Clemson and USC!
Western Kentucky vs. Liberty Betting Trends
- Liberty is 5-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
- Weestern Kentucky is 4-3 ATS this season
- Liberty and Western Kentucky have both gone UNDER in 4 of 7 games this season
Liberty vs. Western Kentucky How to Watch
- Date: Tuesday, October 24
- Game Time: 7:30 PM EST
- Venue: Houchens Industires-L.T. Smith Stadium
- How to Watch (TV): ESPNU
- Liberty Record: 7-0
- Western Kentucky Record: 4-3
Liberty vs. Western Kentucky Key Players to Watch
Liberty
Kaidon Salter: The Flames offense flows through Salter, who has passed for nearly 1,500 yards and ran for nearly 500 while combining for 22 touchdowns and only three interceptions. Salter was as dangerous as ever last week in the team's come from behind win against Middle Tennessee State, rushing for 160 yards on game.
Western Kentucky
Austin Reed: Western Kentucky is one of the most pass-happy units in the country behind last year's passing leader, but the team is starting to struggle as games go on. Reed has completed less than 60% of his passes in three straight games and has an interception in all of them. He'll face a Flames defense that is top third in the nation in both EPA/Pass and success rate through the air.
Liberty vs. Western Kentucky Prediction and Pick
Liberty has proven to be the better team despite the two teams jockeying for position atop the CUSA standings, which is proven in the Flames being four-point road favorites. WKU was exposed in the team's loss at Jacksonville State last week, squandering a double-digit lead and struggling to generate any offense in the second half.
Liberty's secondary has been adept at slowing down the passing game, allowing a completion percentage of less than 54%, good for top 10 in the country, and is 65th in explosive pass defense.
Most importantly, Liberty has generated the most turnovers in the country, a big issue for Reed, who has 12 turnover worthy plays, per Pro Football Focus. For reference, he has 15 big time throws. Compared to last season, his big time throw percentage is down nearly one percent and his turnover worthy play rate is up a tick.
The Liberty defense should be able to slow this WKU offense that is extremely reliant on Reed and stud wide receiver Malachi Corley to make plays. This has been evident in the second half. In three Conference USA games, the Hilltoppers have scored eight total points.
The team's defense has battled injuries and overall ineffective play. The team is 91st in EPA/Play, held down by the team's porous rush defense that is outside the top 100 in EPA/Rush and success rate. I believe the unique Liberty offense that uses Salter in many different types of ways will find answers as the game goes on.
Liberty should take care of business on the road and maintain its unbeaten record. If you don't want to lay the chalk on the road favorite, I'm also going to be eyeing Liberty second half if this game is competitive due to Western Kentucky's continued second half woes.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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