Betsided

Liberty vs. Wings Prediction and Pick (Fade Dallas with Almost No Room to Move in Playoff Seeding)

By Ben Heisler

New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu became the first player in WNBA history with 500+ points, 200+ rebounds and 200+ assists in a season.
New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu became the first player in WNBA history with 500+ points, 200+ rebounds and 200+ assists in a season. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
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The hottest team in the WNBA goes for their sixth straight victory in their home finale tonight when the Dallas Wings host the New York Liberty at 7 p.m. ET.

The Wings locked up the 6-seed in the WNBA Playoffs in their previous matchup vs. the Liberty on Monday, August 8; shutting down the Liberty to just 13 points in the 1st and 4th quarter en route to a 86-77 victory and cover against the spread.

Marina Mabrey stepped up with a career-best 31 points as Dallas will continue to play without star guard Arike Ogunbowale, as she plans to miss the rest of the regular season and a first-round postseason matchup recovering from a core muscle injury.

Can Dallas make it six in a row? Or will the Liberty scrap a victory away on the road?

Here are tonight's latest odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook:

Liberty vs. Wings Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Liberty +5.5 (-110)
  • Wings -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Liberty +190
  • Wings -230

Total:

  • 162.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Liberty vs. Wings Prediction and Pick

Give the Wings a ton of credit. They’ve turned themselves into the hottest team in the league and locked up the 6-seed after taking care of business vs. the Liberty in their previous matchup. It’s been even more impressive to see their resilience without leading scorer Arike Ogunbuwale in their last three victories.

The Liberty have not been good down the stretch, but with Dallas firmly in their spot with no upward or downward movement, I’ll back New York to cover on the road at 5.5-points. 

The Liberty, despite their 13-20 record are 12-10-1 against-the-spread (ATS) as an underdog this season, playing in many close games but ultimately failing to capitalize late. Star guard Sabrina Ionescu is still in contention for league MVP, and will likely be playing quality minutes to push the opportunity further.

I also wonder if the Wings may choose to give some players the opportunity to rest up knowing their seeding is almost certain not to change. 

Dallas is hot, but I think they’d rather be healthy come playoff-time next week. Give me the value on New York plus the points in their rematch game.

PICK: Liberty +5.5 (-110)

Follow all of Ben’s betting plays in real-time HERE!

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