Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction and Odds: Toronto Favored Against Defending Champs
Toronto sports media have put down their pitchforks for now, as the Maple Leafs have won three straight games after a disappointing start to their season.
Their hot streak will be tested on Thursday night when they host the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Lightning are in an almost identical situation as the Leafs. They got off to a slow start to their 2021-22 campaign, including losing on banner raising night to the Penguins, but have won their last three games heading into tonight’s Atlantic Division matchup.
Here are the odds for the game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Odds and Total
Moneyline:
- Lightning +110
- Maple Leafs -130
Puck line:
- Lightning +1.5 (-220)
- Maple Leafs -1.5 (+175)
Total:
- 5.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction and Pick
The Toronto Maple Leafs continue to lead the NHL in CORSI%, which is a good sign if you’re a fan of the team. Notching four goals against the Golden Knights in their last game out could be an indication that their scoring woes are behind them. They also lead the league in high danger scoring chances.
The Lightning, despite being defending Stanley Cup champs, only rank 11th in CORSI% and 10th in high danger scoring chances. The advantage they have in this matchup is they’re much stronger in their defensive end, limiting teams to 9.12 high danger scoring chances per game.
I’ll continue to back the Maple Leafs as a small favorite considering how highly they rank in several advanced analytics, but their play in their own end is something to keep an eye on.
Pick: Maple Leafs -130
*Note: When writing NHL articles, I refer to two main advanced analytics. CORSI% measures shot differential. All shots on goal, missed shots on goal, and blocked shot attempts count towards CORSI. High danger scoring chances is a measure of shot attempts that take place close to the net and are considered high percentage areas for scoring goals.