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Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction and Odds for Game 5 (Tampa Bay Strong Underdog Play in Game 5)

By Iain MacMillan

The Lightning head back to Toronto to face the Maple Leafs in Game 5 on Tuesday night.
The Lightning head back to Toronto to face the Maple Leafs in Game 5 on Tuesday night. / Mike Ehrmann/GettyImages
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The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs have played a back-and-forth series that has resulted in it being tied 2-2 heading into the pivotal Game 5 in Toronto. The Lightning are 16-0 in their last sixteen games following a postseason loss. While that's good news for them in a sense, the Maple Leafs can still win the series without breaking that trend as they have home-ice advantage in two of the final three games.

Can Toronto bounce back after an abysmal Game 4 performance?

Here are the odds via WynnBET for tonight's pivotal matchup.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Odds and Total

Moneyline:

  • Lightning +110
  • Maple Leafs -130

Puck line:

  • Lightning +1.5 (-240)
  • Maple Leafs -1.5 (+200)

Total:

  • 6.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Betting Trends

  • The OVER is 11-2 in the Lightning's last 13 games.
  • Lightning are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
  • Lightning are 10-5 in their last 15 games played in Toronto.
  • The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams.
  • Maple Leafs are 6-1 in their last seven home games.

Lightning vs. Maple Leafs Prediction and Pick

The powerplay has been the story of the series so far, with the Lightning racking up a total of 36:40 of ice time with a man advantage, the most amongst all playoff teams. The good news for the Leafs is that the series is tied 2-2 with home ice advantage despite spending so much time in the box. The bad news is, they're still getting outplayed when it's 5-on-5.

During 5-on-5 play, the Lightning have a CORSI% of 55.59%. They've also been getting plenty more high danger scoring chances, averaging 14.31, compared to the Maple Leafs averaging a measly 8.9.

Jack Campbell, who has kept the Leafs in this series, stumbled in Game 4 and was eventually pulled. Unless he can pull things together and re-gain his confidence ahead of tonight's Game 5, Toronto might be doomed.

Tampa Bay is in a fantastic spot as an underdog tonight.

Pick: Lightning +110

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

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