The Detroit Lions started the postseason with their first playoff win in over three decades but Dan Campbell’s club didn’t stop there. After beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home, the Lions are one victory away from going to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. Can they go on the road as a 7.5-point underdog and shock the top-seeded 49ers?
San Francisco has been so close in the Kyle Shanahan era to hoisting a Lombardi Trophy. The 49ers had to rally in the fourth quarter to beat the Packers in the Divisional Round to reach the NFC Championship for the fourth time in five years.
Here’s a deep dive into the props for Sunday’s NFC Championship game and a same-game parlay to consider.
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Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers Same Game Parlay
- Jared Goff OVER 0.5 interceptions
- Jahmyr Gibbs UNDER 48.5 rushing yards
- Brandon Aiyuk OVER 5.5 receptions
Same Game Parlay Odds: +550
Jared Goff OVER 0.5 interceptions
Much will be made over Jared Goff’s home/road and indoor/outdoor splits heading into Sunday’s matchup and for good reason. This season, Goff’s completion percentage went from 69% when playing inside to 64.5% in the elements. Goff’s passer rating is 104.0 inside this season and just 87.9 outdoors.
Goff has been excellent down the stretch for the Lions to lead them to this spot, throwing for 564 yards and 3 touchdowns against no interceptions in the playoffs. He threw for nine scores and just two picks in the final four games of the regular season to lead Detroit to a division title.
Goff hasn’t played outdoors since Dec. 10, though. Detroit’s last two road games were both in domes (Minnesota, Dallas). Goff was just 20-of-35 with one touchdown and two interceptions in a loss to the Bears the last time he had to play outdoors. Expect nicer weather in San Francisco this Sunday, but the 49ers’ defense was tied with the Bears for the most interceptions in the league this season (22), and a negative game script for the Lions as a 7.5-point underdog should have Goff airing it out.
Jahmyr Gibbs UNDER 48.5 rushing yards
Another factor in the game script with the Lions having to turn to their passing attack is fewer rushing attempts for the rookie. Aaron Jones may have had a nice night against the 49ers in the Divisional Round, but the volume is not there for Gibbs, who has gotten less than 10 carries in both games this postseason while working in a timeshare with David Montgomery.
Gibbs averaged 8.2 yards per carry against the Buccaneers but has only hit this number once in the last four games. He’s been much more dangerous in the passing game, racking up eight catches for 83 yards in two playoff wins.
San Francisco’s defense ranked third in the NFL against the run this season (89.7 yards per game) and Gibbs should struggle to find running room in his limited opportunities on Sunday.
Brandon Aiyuk OVER 5.5 catches
The Lions’ defense is stout against the run this season, ranking second in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (88.4).
Through the air has been a different story as Detroit is ranked 27th against the pass and has allowed 345-plus passing yards in five consecutive games. In the postseason, Matthew Stafford and Baker Mayfield each threw for 300-plus yards and each of their top targets turned in big games. For the Rams, Puka Ncua had 9 receptions for 181 yards and Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans went for 8 catches for 147 yards.
Aiyuk had just three receptions for 32 yards on six targets against the Packers. With Deebo Samuel’s status up in the air for Sunday, look for Aiyuk to bounce back as Brock Purdy’s top target against a weak Detroit secondary.
Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.