The 49ers’ defense has been relatively pedestrian at times this season, especially during the playoffs thus far when it has mattered most. They have done enough to make it to the Super Bowl, but I would argue that the success has largely been on the offensive side of the football while the defense has regressed down the stretch.
During the regular season, excluding Week 18 when they rested key starters, the Niners allowed 100+ rushing yards to a team only five times. Thus far in the playoffs, they have allowed 130+ yards on the ground twice in two games. The Packers and the Lions successfully ran the ball against a front many have regarded as a top unit in the league. That has not been the case as of late.
I expect this trend to continue with the Chiefs dominating in the trenches and running the ball well, which leads us to an intriguing prop that we love.
Chiefs vs 49ers Player Prop
Isiah Pacheco Alt 100+ Rushing Yards
To win this game the Chiefs will need to run the ball early and often. Last game against Baltimore, Pacheco tied a career-high with 24 carries. He also had 24 against the Dolphins in the Wild Card round. His performance against the Ravens was one of his least effective games only averaging 2.4 yards per carry but thanks to the volume he was still able to muster 68 yards on the ground. I expect a similar game script to the game against the Ravens.
The line being under a field goal tells us this will more than likely be a highly competitive affair throughout and even if the Chiefs get down early they will not abandon the run.
Coaches tend to get a bit more conservative when the lights are the brightest and Andy Reid is no different. Pacheco has amassed 68 carries in three postseason games compared to 35 carries in the first three games of the regular season. His carries have only increased the more critical the game and he is now an important cog in the offense. The less they have relied on their stone-handed wideouts the more they have leaned on the Rutgers grad.
We saw Aaron Jones gain 108 yards on the ground (averaging 6.0 yards per carry) and David Montgomery finished just shy with 93 yards (averaging 6.3 yards per carry). If you lean to the Chiefs to keep the game close and potentially win this is a great prop to bet on instead of just taking the moneyline. Can't wait to watch Pacheco break one for 60 yards running like this:
If you want to get even more aggressive betting on Pacheco, you can also find his alternate rushing total of 100+ yards for around +390 odds, which I absolutely love.
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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.