Long Island vs. Merrimack Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NEC Quarterfinals (Trust the Warriors' defense)
Last season, Merrimack won the NEC Tournament in its first season as a Division I program, but wasn’t eligible for the NCAA Tournament. The team they beat in the finals, Fairleigh Dickinson, went on to beat No. 1 Purdue as a 16 seed. Merrimack, which made the Division II NCAA Tournament in three-straight years (2017-19), are bidding for back-to-back titles.
Merrimack tied with Central Connecticut for the regular-season title. The Warriors won 10 consecutive games before dropping the regular-season finale on Saturday in a high-scoring affair to Sacred Heart (89-85). The Warriors are big favorites against lowly Long Island University on Wednesday. The Sharks lost four of their final five games leading up to the tournament and came up short twice to Merrimack in February.
Here’s the best bet for Wednesday’s first-round matchup with a best bet.
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Long Island vs. Merrimack Odds, Spread and Total
Long Island vs. Merrimack Betting Trends
- Long Island is 15-13 ATS this season
- Merrimack is 16-11-1 ATS this season
- Long Island is 13-13 ATS as an underdog this season
- Merrimack is 9-11 ATS as a favorite this season
- The OVER is 9-18-1 in Long Island games this season
- The OVER is 12-16 in Merrimack games this season
Long Island vs. Merrimack How to Watch
- Date: Wednesday, March 6
- Game time: 7 p.m. EST
- Venue: Lawler Arena
- How to watch (TV): NECFrontRow.com
- Long Island record: 7-21
- Merrimack record: 19-11
Long Island vs. Merrimack Key Players to Watch
Long Island
R.J. Greene: The 6-foot-5 guard is top-5 in the NEC in rebounding (7.7) and pulled down double-digit boards in three of the last four games. Greene, who averages 8.4 points per game, scored in double figures in three consecutive contests with a pair of double-doubles in that stretch.
Merrimack
Jordan Derkack: A potential conference player of the year, Derkack leads the NEC in scoring (17.7 points per game) and is the Warriors’ leading rebounder (5.9) while dishing out 3.8 assists per night. Derkack has struggled from beyond the arc this season (27.8%), but has gone 8-of-14 from 3-point range over the last two games, scoring 50 points on 14-of-29 shooting from the field.
Long Island vs. Merrimack Prediction and Pick
Long Island’s offense has struggled mightily this season. The Sharks, No. 7 in the league in field goal percentage (41.8%) and No. 8 in 3-point shooting (31%), rank No. 349 in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, which also has the Sharks as the No. 326 team in effective field goal percentage.
That’s a bad matchup against a Merrimack defense that is No. 23 in effective field goal percentage and top-60 in defending shots from both inside and beyond the arc. The big advantage for the Warriors’ defense is with takeaways. Merrimack forces the 11th-most turnovers in the nation (16.33 per game) and rank No. 5 in KenPom in steal percentage. Ball security is a problem for Long Island, which is last in the league in turnovers per game (14.3). In the two regular-season matchups, Merrimack combined to force 42 turnovers.
Over its last three road games, Long Island is averaging 63 points per game while shooting 38.8% from the field, 28.2% from 3-point range and 63.6% at the free-throw line while turning it over 16.3 times per contest. Take Merrimack’s defense to stymie Long Island’s offense with a Sharks’ team total under bet.
Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.