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Longwood vs. Houston Prediction, Odds and Key Players for NCAA Tournament First Round (Trust the Cougars' defense)

College basketball betting preview, prediction and best bet for Longwood-Houston.

By Shelby Dermer

Mar 6, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson talks with his team.
Mar 6, 2024; Orlando, Florida, USA; Houston Cougars head coach Kelvin Sampson talks with his team. / Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports
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Houston enters the NCAA Tournament looking for vengeance from the worst loss in the Kelvin Sampson era. Unfortunately for Longwood Lancers, they will have to go up against an enraged Cougars club in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. 

No. 16 Longwood hasn’t played since March 10, when the Lancers captured the Big South Tournament title in a dominant 85-59 victory over reigning champion UNC Asheville. Can the Lancers hang inside the big number in Memphis? Here’s the betting breakdown of the matchup with a best bet. 

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Longwood vs. Houston Odds, Spread and Total

Longwood vs. Houston Betting Trends

  • Longwood is 16-15 ATS this season
  • Houston is 16-16-2 ATS this season
  • Longwood is 5-5 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Houston is 16-16-2 ATS as a favorite this season
  • The OVER is 17-14 in Longwood games this season
  • The OVER is 14-20 in Houston games this season 

Longwood vs. Houston How to Watch

  • Date: Friday, March 22
  • Game time: 9:20 p.m. EST
  • Venue: FedEx Forum
  • How to watch (TV): TNT
  • Longwood record: 21-13
  • Houston record: 30-4

Longwood vs. Houston Key Players to Watch

Longwood

Walyn Napper: Longwood put on a clinic in the Big South title game against UNC Asheville, partially from Napper’s all-around contributions. The senior guard had a 10-point, 11-assist double-double to go with 7 rebounds. Napper combined for 46 points, 20 assists, and 17 rebounds in three Big South Tournament tilts. 

Houston 

Jamal Shead: Houston shot just 26.8% from the field in its Big 12 Championship loss to Iowa State. Shead scored a team-high 10 points but went just 3-of-17 from the field. Otherwise, Shead’s been great for the Cougars this season. He averages 13.1 points and is top-20 in the nation in assists (6.2 per game).

Longwood vs. Houston Prediction and Pick 

Houston’s 28-point loss to Iowa State on Saturday was its worst since Sampson took over 10 seasons ago. The Cougars scored their fewest points (41) in the last decade and will look to take out their frustrations against Longwood. 

Where will Houston be the most efficient in a bounce-back effort? Trust the Cougars’ defense, which is No. 2 in KenPom in efficiency and effective field goal percentage. They have a dream matchup to suffocate an opposing offense when they take the court against Longwood, which is No. 240 in effective field goal percentage and No. 254 in shooting from inside the arc.

Houston set the tone defensively in this game with turnovers. Longwood is No. 257 in turnover percentage and Houston causes takeaways at the No. 3 rate in the country. Houston’s offense had its worst showing against an elite Iowa State defense. That’s not the case against Longwood, which is No. 229 in effective field goal percentage. However, Houston hasn’t been particularly great at shooting and you’re always risking another cold night dooming the Cougars’ chances to win by 20-plus.

Instead, lean on Houston’s defense to wreak havoc for 40 minutes against a Longwood offense that hasn’t seen a defense like Houston’s all season with the 309th hardest schedule of opposing offenses. Take Houston to hold Longwood under its posted team total. 

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Game odds update periodically and are subject to change.

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