Look for Lamar Jackson to Shatter His Passing Yards Prop for Ravens vs. Dolphins

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is still in the running for NFL MVP amongst players like Tom Brady, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray.
Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson is still in the running for NFL MVP amongst players like Tom Brady, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray. / Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Lamar Jackson is repeating history this season.

When he unanimously won the league MVP in 2019, Jackson got Baltimore off to a 6-2 record through the team's first eight games, while throwing for 1,813 yards, 637 rushing yards and 17 combined touchdowns.

Via Doug Clawson, Jackson has not only been as good in 2021 as he was in 2019, there's an argument to be made that he's been better!

While one could argue semantics that his passing numbers are larger because the Ravens have been down in more games, was it also indicates is that there may be a discrepancy between how Lamar is viewed compared to his actual results.

WynnBET has Jackson projected for 236.5 passing yards tonight when the Ravens travel to Miami to face the Dolphins as 7.5-point road favorites. The total remains at 46.5 with -110 odds on both the over and under.

Here's why I expect the fourth-year stud to crush the over tonight.

The Dolphins are a Perfect Matchup for Lamar to Throw All Game Long

We mentioned some of these stats in our best bets for Thursday Night Football, as well as on the latest episode of the "Bet & Breakfast" podcast (see above) in our Thursday night picks, but it's worth bringing up here again as well.

The Dolphins have a bottom-three defense against the pass this season, ranking 29th in passing yardage allowed. They've allowed the most 20+ yard passing plays in the league, giving up big chunks of yards throughout the game, and via PFF, Lamar Jackson has the best passer rating in the NFL when having a clean pocket to throw.

Jackson is averaging 276.1 yards per game, far ahead of tonight's projection. While I understand that game script is likely to favor them handing the ball off to Devonta Freeman and Le'Veon Bell as more than a touchdown favorites on the road, I don't think Miami will have much issue scoring, leading to Baltimore having to pass more often than anticipated.

Baltimore's defense has been brutal this year, ranking 21st in points allowed and second-last in passing yards allowed. With both teams possibly going back and forth throughout, I think Jackson takes advantage of Miami's poor pass rush, and finds a plethora of open looks for Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews and the rest of his playmakers tonight.

I'd be stunned if Jackson doesn't get 250+ passing yards on Thursday night, making the decision to take the over an easy one.

Bet $1, Win $100 if either team scores a TD. . dark. Exclusive offer