Los Angeles Chargers 2021-2022 Season Preview, Odds and Win Totals

At the end of the 2020 NFL season, the Los Angeles Chargers management got together and likely had the following conversation to themselves.

Front Office Executive Member 1: "Ok, so this Justin Herbert kid we lucked into in the NFL Draft might be pretty damn good. We may have to get rid of our head coach who has been a nightmare in one-score games if we're going to try and win with him on a rookie contract."

Front Office Executive Member 2: "I concur."

And just like that, Anthony Lynn was let go, and new hotshot defensive coordinator Brandon Staley was brought on board after turning the Los Angeles Rams defense around into the best in the league a season ago.

While it's not fair to blame Lynn for everything that went wrong a season ago as the Chargers experienced all sorts of injuries and misfortunes along the way; it made it even more disappointing to see L.A. win their final four games, three of which came against division opponents to end up at 7-9, leaving fans wondering what could have been.

With Herbert, along with the rest of the Chargers entering 2021 with expectations of contending for a playoff spot coming out of the AFC West, they'll need to stay healthy, fix their blind spots on both sides of the ball, and almost as important, start closing out games in the 4th quarter, having lost seven games by one score a season ago.

Los Angeles Chargers 2021 Team Outlook

It's remarkable to consider that despite Justin Herbert finishing as the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year; putting up record breaking numbers at the position that included 31 touchdown passes, the Chargers still weren't able to find themselves into contention for the playoffs. Herbert now enters his second year with the type of expectations found in the game's elite quarterbacks, as he looks to do what both Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson did in their second year: win an NFL MVP award.

To take that step, he'll need improved play from an offensive line that enters 2021 as the No. 18 ranked unit for 2021 by Pro Football Focus. Rashawn Slater was terrific at left tackle in his college career at Northwestern, and Los Angeles will hope for solid campaigns by two former Packers in right tackle Bryan Bulaga and newly acquired center Ryan Linsley. PFF expects this year's unit to be vastly improved from a season ago.

Having a healthy Austin Ekeler at starting running back will be a huge help as well. Injuries took him out of six of their 16 games last year, limiting him to just 530 rushing yards on 116 attempts, but still catching 54 passes for 403 yards and two scores. The previous season, while Ekeler's rushing totals were somewhat similar, he's normally a lock for 100-plus targets in the passing game, adding another multi-dimension weapon for Herbert, along with backs Joshua Kelly and Justin Jackson.

At receiver, Keenan Allen finished off another 100 catch season for the Chargers last year to go along with 992 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. His 147 targets led L.A. by 54 over Hunter Henry, who recently left to join the Patriots, meaning there's 93 vacated targets to be picked up by Allen, Mike Williams, and the rest of the crew. Williams remains the most intriguing on the list with his explosiveness downfield, and could be a sneaky play to take off this season.

At tight end, no Hunter Henry should give veteran Jared Cook plenty of first team reps along with holdover Donald Parham Jr.

On defense, the Chargers finished 23rd in points allowed, but were inside the top 10 in yards allowed. Staley was paramount in the Rams' defensive turnaround from a season ago, making me believe a major turnaround is coming on that side of the ball for the other team in L.A. this season.

Up front, Joey Bosa and Uchenna Nwosu will be the key players needing to create consistent pressure up the middle and on the edge. They'll also have Jerry Tillery and Linval Joseph to help stop the run and the gaps inside.

At linebacker, Kenneth Murray, the team's leading tackler a season ago and Drue Tranqill returns after breaking his ankle last year and ending up on injured reserve.

In the secondary, the veteran Chris Harris Jr will hold down the left side, with Michael Davis playing opposite of him. Derwin James remains one of the most impactful safeties in the league, who can cover almost any wide receiver in coverage as well. He'll likely have Nasir Adderley alongside in the free safety spot.

Los Angeles Chargers 2021 NFL Draft

The Chargers shored up a key spot on the offensive line with rookie Rashawn Slater with the 13th pick int he first round of the NFL Draft. Slater should step in immediately to protect Herbert's blind side and pair up with several veterans to help him along the way.

In Round 2, Asante Samuel Jr, the cornerback from Florida State is likely a year away from being their number one guy, but he'll see plenty of playing time in nickel sets for L.A.

If this is Mike Williams' final season with the Chargers, L.A. got a solid insurance policy with third round receiver Josh Palmer out of Tennessee who fits a similar profile to that of Williams with his big frame and explosiveness downfield. They also grabbed a new tight end in Georgia's Tre' McKitty with the departure of Hunter Henry.

Rounding out the rest of the draft for L.A. includes linebacker Chris Rumph II out of Duke, offensive tackle Brendan James from Nebraska, linebacker Nick Niemann out of Iowa, running back Larry Rountree from Mizzou, and safety Mark Webb from Georgia.

Los Angeles Chargers Team Odds: Division (+450), Conference (+1500), Super Bowl (+3000)

The Chargers enter the 2021 season second in the AFC West odds race at WynnBET Sportsbook behind the Chiefs (-310) at odds of +450 to walk away with the division. The Broncos (+600) and Raiders (+2000) round out third and fourth place respectively.

Should the Chargers make the postseason, they come in at +1500 to win the AFC, as well as +3000 to win Super Bowl 56. If they were to accomplish that feat, they'd be the second team in NFL history to both play and win the Super Bowl in their home stadium, after Tampa Bay accomplished it just last year.

Los Angeles Chargers Regular Season Win Total: 9.5 WINS | OVER (+105), UNDER (-125)

Ben Heisler: 

To paraphrase an old quote, there's a reason why those big massive resorts continue to stay up in Las Vegas.

The oddsmakers, particularly over at WynnBET this year are extremely bullish on Justin Herbert as a viable MVP candidate. When they placed Herbert's MVP odds second behind Patrick Mahomes, the collective betting world was stunned. WynnBET Senior Trading Manager Alan Berg shared their decision with BetSided as to why Herbert's number came in as low as it did.

“Herbert was amazing in his rookie season. His offensive line struggled to protect him, and the running game was absent. Yet, he still had the most passing touchdowns ever by a rookie.

I was never a fan of Anthony Lynn’s coaching, so new head coach Brandon Staley won’t need to make many adjustments for Herbert to continue excelling. Once we took one sizable bet at 20/1, that was enough for me to cut him even more.”

That's enough for me to get the sense that there won't be much of a sophomore slump for the former Oregon Duck. Herbert, along with a healthy Keenan Allen, Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams should form a dynamic group on offense. Defensively, I trust Brandon Staley's ability to maximize his players' strengths and expect this to be a top 10 unit in both points allowed as well as yards.

The division is tough with an improved Chiefs and Broncos squad, but I expect the Chargers to make the playoffs and get over their win total slightly.

PREDICTION: OVER 9.5 WINS (+105)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 10 WINS (+375)

Donnavan Smoot:

PREDICTION: 

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 

Peter Dewey:

The Chargers are an up-and-coming team in the 2021 season with star quarterback Justin Herbert expected to build on a strong rookie season (he has the third-best odds at WynnBET to win MVP at +1000). 

However, I think the Chargers might not be in for as big of a leap as many think after last season’s 7-9 campaign. Los Angeles had a top-10 defense in terms of yardage and faced a last-place schedule, yet it still ended up below .500 even with Herbert’s big season. 

Los Angeles only lost three games by double digits last season, but it faces six playoff teams from last season in 2021 and that doesn’t include matchups with the New England Patriots (who beat them 45-0 in 2020) and Dallas Cowboys. 

Los Angeles is going to be better than seven wins, but I don’t think they’ll be a 10-win team just yet. Give the Chargers at nine wins just missing the over on their projected win total. 

PREDICTION: UNDER 9.5 WINS (-125)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 9 WINS (+375)

Iain MacMillan:

Brandon Staley is the betting favorite to win coach of the year and for good reason. New head coach, coming into a young team that’s loaded with talent. I’m interested to see if Justin Herbert can repeat last season’s success.

My issue with the Chargers, when it comes to betting on them, is that they were impossible to figure out last season. They weren’t fantastic at anything, they weren’t terrible at anything, and a team like that has no identity to give you an angle when handicapping their games.

They were 18th in scoring offense, 10th in yards per game, 10th in opponent yards per game, 23rd in scoring defense, 18th in rushing offense, 17th in rushing defense, 10th in third down offense, 22nd in third down defense.

What am I supposed to do with a team that’s average at everything?

I think the roster is talented enough to take a step forward this season, but double digit wins might be a bit of a stretch.

PREDICTION: UNDER 9.5 WINS (-125)

EXACT WIN TOTAL: 9 WINS (+375)

Will the Los Angeles Chargers Make the Playoffs? | MISS THE PLAYOFFS (-160), MAKE THE PLAYOFFS (+130)

Ben Heisler: 

I've already been on record for saying that I think three teams are coming out of the AFC East. With only one spot remaining, I've had to save it for the L.A. Chargers to get through. For those of you following at home, yes, that means I've projected the Browns, Steelers and Titans to miss the playoffs, although I'm regretting my Colts pick to win the division more and more as each day goes by.

The Chargers will end up with 10 wins, finding themselves with the 5-seed led by another terrific, possibly even MVP-worthy campaign by Herbert. I'd hate to face them in the wild card round.

PREDICTION: YES (+130)

Donnavan Smoot:

PREDICTION: 

Peter Dewey: 

I actually wouldn’t mind taking the Chargers at +130 to make the playoffs, but I think they’ll have a hard time if they only win nine games like I’m predicting. 

Herbert may take the next step and become a serious face in this league like Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson did in their second seasons, but if he does take a step back it severely limits the Chargers’ outlook. 

I’m high on Herbert as a player, but I think the Chargers face a slightly tougher schedule than I’d like for a borderline playoff team. Having to play the Chiefs twice and traveling to Mile High every year is a rough break, but the Chargers may be a year away from becoming a perennial playoff team. 

PREDICTION: NO (-160)

Iain MacMillan:

The AFC West is a better division than people give them credit for. Denver is healthy and re-tooled, and the Raiders had one of the better offenses in the NFL last year. Then of course there’s the Kansas City Chiefs, who should once again be one of the best teams in the league.

The Chargers additional 17th game this season will be against the Minnesota Vikings, which will be an interesting matchup considering the two teams are entering the season with similar expectations.

The Chargers will get close, but I think they’ll be on the outside of the postseason looking in once again.

PREDICTION: NO (-160)

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Every day from the start of NFL Training Camp, the BetSided team of Ben Heisler, Donnavan Smoot, Peter Dewey, and Iain MacMillan are breaking down the win totals, playoff, and Super Bowl odds for every team in the NFL.

Up next, we preview the betting outlook for the Denver Broncos and check out our earlier team-by-team betting previews.

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