The Louisiana Ragin Cajuns head to Arkansas State to face the Red Wolves in Week 8 Sun Bet action. To say the Red Wolves have struggled this season would be an understatement. The home team is riding a five-game losing streak with their lone win coming in a Week 1 victory over Central Arkansas of the Western Athletic Conference.
The Ragin Cajuns, meanwhile, have had a mirror opposite season. The team came out and got smoked by (18) Texas in week 1 but rebounded to win five in a row.
This is a clear case of teams heading in drastically different directions after Week 1 ended. So which team comes out ahead in Week 8? Can the Red Wolves salvage what is left of their season? Or, will the Ragin Cajuns make it six in a row? Let’s break down some matchup stats and odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to make a pick on this game.
Louisiana-Lafayette vs Arkansas State Odds, Spread and Over/Under
- UL Lafayette -14.5 (-110)
- Arkansas State +14.5 (-110)
- UL Lafayette -600
- Arkansas State +450
- 68.5 (--110)
Louisiana-Lafayette vs Arkansas State Trends
- Arkansas State is 1-4 ATS in their last five games. All of which they lost SU.
- The UNDER is 4-1 in Arkansas State’s last five games.
- The UNDER is 4-2 in the last six games for UL Lafayette on the road.
- UL Lafayette has covered 4 of their last 5 games against Arkansas State.
Louisiana-Lafayette vs Arkansas State and Pick
This game is tough because, despite the terrible play of Arkansas State this year, the spread is vast at 14.5 points. UL-Lafayette has been favorites 26 and 14.5 points this year so far against Nichols State and GA Southern respectively. They managed to beat Nicholls State by just 3 points in a near-upset and didn’t even come close to covering. Same with the GA Southern game which they managed to escape with an 8-point victory. They did cover 19-point favorites by dismantling Ohio by 35 points, but the facts are clear. UL Lafayette has covered just twice in six games and once as a favorite this year.
Problem is, the Red Wolves haven’t fared much better in terms of covering spreads. They have been double-digit underdogs three of their six games this year and covered just one of those games against Tulsa. Two weeks later though, they failed to cover as 20-point underdogs against Coastal Carolina and got beat up by 32 points. They also failed to cover as 1.5-point underdogs against GA Southern and as 4-point underdogs against Washington.
Taking a look at each team and their season stats, it looks to be another tough cover for the Red Wolves. While their offense is competitive and ranks in the top-50 in yards per game and red zone scoring percentage, their defense will ultimately let them down. The Red Wolves rank 130th or lower in opponents’ points per game, yards per game points per play, along with both passing and rushing yards surrendered.
On the flip side, the Ragin’ Cajuns have had a very strong statistical season. Especially when compared with their week 8 opponents. LA-Lafayette ranks in the top 50 in points per game and yards per play and is fourth in the nation at converting fourth downs. Their defense ranks almost 100 spots higher than Arkansas State in rushing yards allowed and points per game.
The fact of the matter is that while UL Lafayette is not a perfect team, and struggles to cover large spreads Arkansas State is just that much worse. I feel like the Ragin’ Cajuns make quick work of the Red Wolves this weekend and make it six wins in a row.
Prediction: Louisiana-Lafayette Red Wolves -14.5 (-110)