Betsided

Louisville vs. Air Force Updated Prediction and Odds for First Responder Bowl

By Reed Wallach

Nov 26, 2021; Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA; Air Force Falcons defensive tackle Jordan Jackson
Nov 26, 2021; Colorado Springs, Colorado, USA; Air Force Falcons defensive tackle Jordan Jackson / Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

Air Force and Louisville are set to meet in the First Responder Bowl in University Park, Texas on Tuesday at 3:15 pm ET.

The Falcons built up a 9-3 record behind a strong season in the Mountain West running their patent triple option offense.

The Cardinals enter with dynamite quarterback Malik Cunningham, who can bust up defenses with both his arms and legs. Cunningham passed for over 2,700 yards and tossed 18 touchdowns on the year while rushing for 968 yards on six yards per carry.

How should we bet the First Responder Bowl? Here are the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook.

Air Force vs. Louisville Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • Air Force: +1.5 (-110)
  • Louisville: -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Air Force: -120
  • Louisville: +100

Total: 55 (Over -110/Under -110)

Louisville vs. Air Force Betting Trends

  • Both teams went under in 7 of 12 games this season
  • Air Force went 8-4 ATS this season, 5-0 away from home
  • Louisville is 2-5 to the UNDER as a favorite

Air Force vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

I'm siding with Air Force and the triple option in this bowl game. Service academies are a cash cow in bowl season, going 37-15 ATS since 1980 in these bowl (h/t Action Network), and there's cause for optimism against this Louisville defense.

Scott Satterfield is outside the top 100 in defensive rush success rate and line yards, which is going to be a disaster against Air Force's triple option. This is the best rushing team in terms of success rate in the country and are going to blast Louisville off the line of scrimmage. Expect the Falcons to be picking up yards consistently on the ground and chewing the clock to keep Cunningham on the sidelines.

While the Cardinals QB is dynamic, Air Force is top 10 in tackling and success rate and I see them getting more stops over the course of the game to pull away.

This line is short, but I make Air Force -3 and think they are capable of slowing down the Louisville offense to grab a victory. For what it's worth, I lean towards the over in a game I project north of 60.

PICK: Air Force +100, play to -110

Home/NCAAF Picks