Louisville vs. South Carolina Prediction and Odds for Final Four (Gamecocks Can Cover the Big Number vs. Cardinals)

The South Carolina Gamecocks were always expected to be in the Final Four in Minneapolis, but the same can't exactly be said about the Louisville Cardinals despite their No. 1 seed.

South Carolina was in a tier of their own entering the start of the NCAA women's tournament despite being knocked out of the SEC Championship game vs. Kentucky several weeks ago. They have the top player in the country in Aliyah Boston, were by far and away the leader in net rating, the No. 1 defensive team in the country, and.

Meanwhile, there was no real definitive argument for Louisville to grab the final No. 1 seed over teams like UConn, Baylor, Texas and Iowa, but to their credit, the Cardinals have not only made it this far, but have won every game by double digits.

With a big spread to cover, can the Gamecocks not only advance to the championship, but cover the points as well?

Here are the consensus odds for the first game of the 2022 Women's Final Four.

Louisville vs. South Carolina Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

• Louisville +7.5 (-110)
• South Carolina -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Louisville +290
• South Carolina -375

Total:

• 121.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Louisville vs. South Carolina Prediction and Pick

7.5-points is a lot to cover against a fellow No. 1 seed, but when it comes to betting South Carolina, conventional wisdom need not apply.

The Gamecocks dismantled No. 10 Creighton in the Elite Eight 80-50, seemingly doing whatever they wanted both offensively and defensively. And before you weigh in with, "Yeah, but they were a No. 10 seed," the Bluejays were woefully under-seeded, knocking out programs like Colorado, stunning the No. 2 Iowa Hawkeyes and Caitlin Clark, and backed it up again in the Sweet 16 with a dominant 76-68 win over Iowa State.

And then there's been the play of Aliyah Boston, who backed up her 25 point, 20 rebound game vs. North Carolina in the Sweet 16 with an efficient 7 of 9 for 19 points vs. Creighton in the Elite Eight.

Louisville, despite being the weakest No. 1 seed in the field, has performed well throughout the tournament, winning by double digits in all four. Hailey Van Lith was sensational in their 62-50 win vs. Michigan, dropping 22 points in the Cardinals' most impressive defensive output of the tournament.

So why not back the big dog who's played remarkably consistent this tournament? It's because South Carolina is on another level, even to a fellow No. 1 seed. The Gamecocks are by far and away the No. 1 team in the Her Hoop Stats overall rating (44.5) by a full 8.7 points over Louisville (35.8), are the top defensive rating team in women's college basketball, and are also tops in Simple RPI, Margin per game and Margin per 100 possessions.

I think we've seen the Cardinals' best basketball in this tournament, and we haven't sniffed South Carolina's with the exception of the Creighton game. Now that the Final Four is actually here, I think they win by double digits.

LEAN: South Carolina -7.5 (-110)

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