Louisville vs Virginia Tech Prediction and Odds (Hokies To Control Low-Scoring Contest)

The 12-16 Louisville Cardinals have won five straight against Virginia Tech but find themselves as underdogs when they take on the 18-11 Hokies tonight at 9:00 PM EST.

Louisville has quietly covered the spread in three of their last five after a 1-10 against the spread (ATS) stretch. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, has won eight of nine and covered in six of those wins.

Will the Cardinals continue their improvement or will the Hokies stay hot? Perhaps the value lies with the total instead?

Here are the odds via WynnBET:

Louisville vs Virginia Tech Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Louisville +10.5 (-110)
• Virginia Tech -10.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

• Louisville: +425
• Virginia Tech: -575

Total:

• 132 (Over -110/Under -110)

Louisville vs Virginia Tech Prediction and Pick

Fading Louisville became one of my favorite bets in all of college basketball, but their recent play has come back to bite me a bit. They beat Clemson outright and covered against North Carolina and Notre Dame on the road. I'm still not a believer in this team, though, as they're just 9-18-1 against the spread (ATS) on the season.

The Cardinals' offense isn't any good. Louisville ranks 223rd nationally in effective field goal percentage, in large part due to their 307th-ranked three-point shooting. With an offensive rebounding rate outside the top-200 and the 304th-highest free throw rate, they don't give themselves extra chances if they're missing shots and need to score inside.

That means trouble against a Virginia Tech offense that's 20th in adjusted efficiency. The Hokies make over 39% of their three-point attempts, good for 6th in the country, and are strong on the interior as well. Unless the Hokies have a poor shooting night, I struggle to see how the Cardinals can keep up.

Louisville is only 2-5 ATS as a road underdog while Virginia Tech has covered as a home favorite in four of their last five. I'm not backing off my "Fade Louisville Always" mantra and am taking the Hokies, but I also like the under tonight.

Thanks to Virginia Tech playing at one of the slowest paces in America, the under has hit in four straight when the Hokies are a home favorite. It's also 4-1 in Louisville's last five as an underdog as their offensive struggles have held them down. I like Virginia Tech to control the pace and notch another under in a game that ends in the neighborhood of 70-57.

Pick: Virginia Tech -10.5 (-110) and under 132 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.