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LPGA Odds and Picks: T-Mobile Match Play

Breaking down the format, odds, and best bets to win this week's LPGA event, the T-Mobile Match Play.

By Iain MacMillan

Alison Lee watches to see where her tee shot lands on the first hole during the final round of the
Alison Lee watches to see where her tee shot lands on the first hole during the final round of the / Alex Gould/The Republic / USA TODAY
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Nelly Korda has won three straight starts on the LPGA, something that hasn't been done since 2016, after winning last week's Ford Championship.

Now, the LPGA heads to Shadow Creek for the fourth edition of their Match Play event. Now that the PGA Tour no longer has a match-play tournament, this will be our only chance this season to watch this format at the professional level.

With that being said, there is a stroke play format and it doesn't become match play until the weekend. The tournament will begin a day early, on Wednesday, with a full field. There will be two rounds of the entire field competing and then after 36 holes, it will be cut to the top 65 and ties. After the third round, the top eight players will advance to a Match Play format on Saturday and Sunday.

The quarterfinals will take place Saturday morning and the Semifinals will take place Saturday afternoon. The Championship match will take place on Sunday.

So there you have it. A full field will be reduced to a 62-player field, which will then be reduced to an 8-player match play bracket. This is going to make the handicapping of this event extremely difficult and your main goal should be betting on golfers that will make it to the match play portion of the event and then you will have the chance to hedge accordingly.

Let's dive into my top three picks!

If you're looking to bet this event, be sure to do it at BetMGM. If you click the link below to sign up for an account, you'll receive $150 in bonus bets when you place your first $5 wager!

LPGA T-Mobile Match Play odds

Top 10 odds to win via BetMGM Sportsbook:

  • Nelly Korda +650
  • Ayaka Furure +1600
  • Hyo Joo Kim +1800
  • Lydia Ko +1800
  • Brooke Henderson +2000
  • Minjee Lee +2000
  • Alison Lee +2200
  • Celine Boutier +2200
  • Sei Young Kim +2200
  • Nasa Hataoka +2500

LPGA Picks and Best Bets for T-Mobile Match Play

Ayaka Furue +1800

The hardest part about hitting a winner in this event is they have to be inside the top eight after Friday's round so we're going to stick to names close to the top of the odds list. The first one is Ayaka Furue, who was the runner-up at this event in each of the last two years. She clearly loves Shadow Creek and the match play format so she should be well poised to compete here once again.

A 13th-place finish here last week means her form is trending in the right direction and she leads the LPGA in total birdies this season which is huge for match play format.

As of writing this article, she's available at +1800 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Alison Lee +2200

If Alison Lee could putt at an average level, she would already have multiple wins this season. She is the best ball striker on the LPGA, leading the LPGA in strokes gained: tee to green, averaging +4.09 per round. That should suit her well for match play format as scoring birdies is what match play is all about.

She has finished inside the top 10 in each of her last two starts and finished ninth here last year. She also hit 57/72 greens in regulation last week, leading the field in strokes gained tee to green at +15.6. She checks all the boxes as a potential winner this week and she's available at a solid price of +2200.

Sei Young Kim +2800

Sei Young Kim leads the LPGA in birdies per round, averaging 4.45, which is significant for match play due to usually needing to score to beat your opponent. Golfers need to be aggressive and that will open things up for Kim. She has finished inside the top 20 in every event this season including a T3 finish at the Honda LPGA Thailand and a T13 last week.

Her style of play fits this event to perfection.

As of writing this article, she's available at +2800 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!

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