LSU vs. Georgia Prediction and Odds for SEC Championship Game (Bulldogs Lock Up No. 1 Seed in CFP)

Nov 26, 2022; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Stetson Bennett (13) passes the
Nov 26, 2022; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs quarterback Stetson Bennett (13) passes the / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

The SEC Championship game pits the odds on favorite to repeat as National Champions in Georgia against a surprising entrant from the SEC West in LSU after they upset Alabama earlier this season.

The Tigers do come into the SEC Championship game down after losing on the road to Texas A&M by double digits and quarterback Jayden Daniels exiting with an ankle injury. While it was already a tough task to knock off Georgia, it'll be even more difficult if Brian Kelly doesn't have his standout quarterback at 100%.

Here's our game preview for the SEC Championship game, starting with the latest odds:

LSU vs. Georgia Odds, Spread and Total

LSU vs. Georgia Betting Trends

  • LSU is 1-4 against the spread (ATS) away from home this season
  • LSU is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season
  • Georgia has gone UNDER in four of 12 games this season

LSU vs. Georgia Prediction and Pick

The big news ahead of this one is the status of Daniels, who has taken a big step forward late in the season as LSU made their surprising conference title game push. He left the Texas A&M loss in the fourth quarter and his status is up in the air for Saturday, here is the latest from Kelly's press conference Monday:

Daniels is important, of course, but the Bayou Bengals are already up against it while facing this Georgia offense that is top 10 in yards per play, points per drive and success rate. The Bulldogs offensive line has allowed seven sacks on the season and are converting more than 51% of their third downs.

This is a team that keeps the ball on the ground a ton to open up their passing game with Stetson Bennett and do it all tight end, Brock Bowers, among others. I expect Georgia to crush LSU on the ground, where the Tigers rank 78th in EPA/Play this season defending the run. Georgia is second in the nation on an EPA/Rush basis and should put the Tigers in a negative game script.

With Daniels hobbled with an ankle injury, I don't expect LSU's offense to hold up against the Georgia defense that allows less than three yards per carry and about one point per drive on the year. While the team's pressure rates are low, that is by design as they know they can win on the line of scrimmage without sending blitz packages. The team is fifth in defensive line yards, a sign that they shut down the run game, but only have 22 sacks on the year, 90th in the country. However, the team is third in success rate allowed and top 40 against the explosive run and pass.

Georgia's defense is the best unit in the country on either side of the ball, and should have little issue shutting down LSU's above average offense that may be a shell of itself with the dual threat Daniels not a threat to use his legs. Daniels has rushed for over 800 yards and has 11 touchdowns on the ground.

I'll side with the Bulldogs to make this look routine once again, en route to another College Football Playoff appearance.


Track all of Reed's bets at Betstamp
HERE!


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.