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LSU vs. TCU Prediction and Odds (Bet Horned Frogs as Home Underdogs)

By Reed Wallach

Jan 25, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs forward Emanuel Miller (2) celebrate
Jan 25, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs forward Emanuel Miller (2) celebrate / Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
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TCU has emerged as a threat for an at large bid over the past few weeks with wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma to their name, but can really make a statement with a win at home against LSU in the SEC/Big 12 Challenge.

The Tigers come in losers of three of their past four as they try to remain competitive without their starting point guard Xavier Pinson and big man Darius Days, who are nursing injuries.

Here are the odds for this nonconference showdown in Fort Worth, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

LSU vs. TCU Odds, Spread and Total

Spread:

  • LSU: -3 (-110)
  • TCU: +3 (-110

Moneyline:

  • LSU: -150
  • TCU: +130

Total: 126.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

LSU vs. TCU Prediction and Pick

The Tigers have the best defense in college basketball, forcing turnovers at a high rate and limiting teams to the second lowest effective field goal percentage in the country. Now, TCU is not going to challenge them in this regard. They are a middling offense that struggles to protect the ball, but they are top 5 in offensive rebounding rate.

On this end, both teams play methodical and get into the final seconds of the shot clock. In what should be a low scoring affair, TCU may not have to do much to stay within arms length of LSU.

As for when the Tigers have the ball, they like to play fast and TCU will welcome that, posting the 36th fastest average length of defensive possessions this season and turning over opponents at a top 100 clip. The Horned Frogs are a disciplined bunch, fouling their opponents at a bottom 20 free throw rate and holding them to 45% on two-point tries. LSU struggles from the perimeter so I expect them to go right into the strength of TCU's D.

Ultimately, I see this game being a slug fest and can't confidently back the Tigers as road favorites over two possessions. I like TCU to keep this one close and would bet them down to +4.

PICK: TCU +3

All of Reed's college basketball plays can be tracked here, his best bets column for college basketball is 26-34-3 for -10.4 units.

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