LSU vs. Texas A&M Prediction, Odds, Spread and Over/Under for College Football Week 13
By Reed Wallach
The most disappointing team in the entire country finishes their season in hopes of spoiling someone else's.
The Texas A&M Aggies are in dissaray under Jimbo Fisher. The team isn't bowl eligible at 4-7 and limping to the finish line amidst suspensions and injuries. They host the LSU Tigers, who has turned it on in the second half of the season, winning the SEC West in shocking fashion and keeping faint College Football Playoff hopes alive.
Will A&M finish their season on a high note, or will LSU continue to build some momentum heading into the SEC Championship game against Tennessee?
LSU vs. Texas A&M Odds, Spread and Total
LSU vs. Texas A&M Betting Trends
- Texas A&M is 3-7-1 against the spread (ATS) this season and hasn't covered in five straight games
- LSU has covered four of their last five games
- LSU has gone UNDER in four of six games as an underdog
LSU vs. Texas A&M Prediction and Pick
It's tough to gauge this Aggies team and what their motivation will be heading into their final game of the season. The offense is anemic, evident when they only scored 20 points against UMass last week, and now welcome an LSU team that has everything to play for after being ranked No. 5 in the College Foobtall Playoff ranking.
My raw number is inside of 10 on this spread, so I show initial value on the Aggies, and it would be the only side I play, despite the team falling way short of expectations. The key to this game is Devon Achane's availability. The Texas A&M running back has missed the team's last two games but is the their most explosive player, averaging nearly six yards per carry and has nine all purpose touchdowns. Fisher said that he is "very, very optimistic" about his availability this week.
The way to beat LSU is on the ground, the group is 70th in EPA/Rush and 97th in success rate, so the Aggies can keep this one out of the air and bleed the clock. While the team has played faster of late with Conner Weigman under center, the team went from 89th in terms of plays per minute to 60th over the last two weeks, I believe there is a path to success for the team's offense.
Meanwhile, the LSU offense is still a concern for me. The team won a slug fest two weeks ago against Arkansas with a backup quarterback, 13-10 as the offense failed to take advantage of a suspect defense. I see a similar situation brewing here, but the Aggies have a far better defense, 38th in EPA/Play.
The Tigers have Georgia on deck and they could be caught looking ahead, but I simply don't trust their leaky rush defense nor their offense to win with margin. Plug your nose and take Texas A&M.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.