Luka Doncic and Ja Morant Square Off With Major Playoff Implications

Two of the NBA’s most electrifying guards will go to-to-toe on Tuesday and there are major playoff implications on the line. Luka Doncic has been a scoring machine in his young NBA career, but can he outperform the ultra-athletic Ja Morant on the road in Memphis?

WynnBET has Doncic’s player prop projection for points and assists set at 37.5 on Tuesday with the over and under both at -115. Doncic is expected to significantly outperform Morant, who is projected for 26.5 points and assists combined, though the over (-125) is favored to the under (-108). 

What may be even more intriguing about this matchup are the playoff implications that come with it. Dallas has a half-game lead over the Portland Trail Blazers for the Western Conference’s No. 5 seed and a two-game cushion on the No. 7 seeded Los Angeles Lakers. The Lakers take on the New York Knicks tonight and would pick up ground with a win and a Dallas loss. 

Memphis, on the other hand, is fighting for its playoff life. The Grizzlies are half a game behind the Golden State Warriors for the No. 8 seed, but they have a 4.5 game lead on the No. 11 seeded New Orleans Pelicans with just 4 games to play, solidifying at least a spot in the league’s play-in tournament. 

Doncic has gotten to rest in the Mavs’ last two games, as he played less than 24 minutes in back-to-back wins over the Cleveland Cavaliers. Granted, Doncic was ejected from one of the games for a cheap shot on Collin Sexton, but Dallas doesn’t mind its superstar getting some extra rest before the playoffs.

As for his player prop, Doncic has gone under 37.5 combined points and assists five times in his last six contests. He’s only reached 38 combined points and assists three times in his last 10 games. It is also possible the Mavs rest him if they pick up a big lead late in the game. They're favored by -1 points over the Grizzlies in this game, so Vegas is projecting a close one. Luka will get his, but we think 37.5 is a little aggressive given his recent play. 

Morant’s projection is much more manageable. The second-year guard averages 19.2 points and 7.3 assists per game this season, which puts him right at the 26.5 projection. Morant has played over 31 minutes in every game this month, and he's played an average of 36.7 minutes a night in the Grizzlies’ last five games. 

Despite the increased playing time, Morant has hit over 26.5 combined points and assists just two times in his last eight games. He’d likely need a decent scoring night to hit the over, but Morant has been slumping, shooting just 38.8 percent from the field and averaging 16.1 points over his last eight contests. Morant could be due for a breakout game, but it just doesn’t look likely given his shooting struggles. 

We’re projecting both players to go under on this prop, but don’t let that discourage you from enjoying what has the makings of a playoff-level matchup in the season’s final week.