Mac Jones Prop Bets Don't Paint Pretty Picture for Pats
By Matt De Saro
One of the more interesting games of the AFC Wild Card slate has to be the third encounter of the season for the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots. The Patriots won the first game in Week 13 at Buffalo but the Bills got revenge in Foxboro in Week 16.
While many have high hopes for the Patriots’ chances to make a run at the Super Bowl, I am not sure they have the quarterback to do it. Mac Jones has been a very good addition for the Patriots but he is still a rookie and has some growing to do.
Jones had a very impressive season but over the last month of the season began to see his numbers slip. This is not uncommon in rookie players, especially quarterbacks, due to the grueling NFL schedule when compared to college. Over his last four games of the season, Jones had six touchdowns and five interceptions including two picks against the Bills.
In the Patriots win over Buffalo, Jones passed just three times in one of the most bizarre games I have ever seen.
For those hoping that Mac Jones will get back on track, it might not come this season.
At least if the oddsmakers are correct about his stats this weekend.
WynnBET Sportsbook has released player props for all the first-round games and their odds for Mac Jones are very telling. The props are as follows:
- Total Passing Touchdowns O/U 1.5
- Total Passing Attempts O/U 30.5
- Total Passing Completions O/U 18.5
- Total Passing Yards O/U 201.5
While these numbers don’t set a high bar, Jones could struggle to reach them. This is because the Bills have the best pass defense in the entire NFL. Buffalo surrenders on average just 179.2 yards per game passing and allows less than one passing touchdown per four quarters.
Things get even less positive when you look at Jones’ stats in the two games he has played against the Bills this year. In two games, Jones averaged 82 passing yards per game and zero touchdowns.
While those numbers are skewed by Jones’ three-pass game, that strategy actually worked. So, a run-heavy hybrid strategy would limit Jones’ passing attempts once again. Jones did not go over any of these props in either of his first two games against the Bills and I have no reason to believe that will change on Sunday.