Mac Jones vs. Matt Ryan: Who Will Throw for More Yards in Patriots vs. Falcons?

Matt Ryan and Mac Jones go head to head this weekend. We decided to break down their prop odds for total passing and compare the two.
Matt Ryan and Mac Jones go head to head this weekend. We decided to break down their prop odds for total passing and compare the two. / Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports


Mac Jones has been a great draft pick so far for the New England Patriots and has led them to a 6-4 record. While he doesn't rack up a lot of passing yards, Jones is very good in the red zone and is only getting better every week. 

Matt Ryan, meanwhile, is fluctuating every week. He is obviously the more talented of the two, but at 36 years old and without the weapons he is accustomed to, Matty Ice hasn’t looked great recently. Sure, he has some great games here and there. But, he looks like a QB that is ready to ride off into the sunset. 

Let's take a look at the prop odds for these two from WynnBET Sportsbook and predict who goes over and who comes out on top. 

Mac Jones Passing Yards Total 247.5 (OVER -125/UNDER +125)

It has to be said that Mac Jones has been exactly what Bill Belichick needed to keep the Patriots on the winning side of things. He and Ja’Marr Chase are the frontrunners for offensive rookie of the year and are performing better than Cam Newton did in NE last year. However, while Jones regularly lights up the scoreboard, his passing yards stats are relatively average. 

Heading into Week 11, Jones sits right around the middle of the league in passing yards with 2,333. 

So far Jones’ best game to date in terms of passing yards was against the Jets in late October. Jones. It was Jones’ first and only 300+ yard game and he added two touchdowns on the day. However, it was only one of four games that Jones has gone over 247.5 yards passing. The other three were Week 1 against the Dolphins, Week 3 against the Saints,  and Week 4 against the Bucs. He hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in his last two weeks and had a bad game against the Panthers in there where he finished with a 28.5 QBR. 

At first glance, this looks like an amazing matchup against a Falcons’ defense that ranks 31st in opponent PPG and 22nd in YPG allowed. And while that is the case, they actually do a pretty decent job of stopping the pass. ATL ranks 17th overall in terms of opponent passing yards per game at 246.2. Just a hair under this total ironically. 

Getting back to this game, I do like Mac Jones to lead the Patriots to victory over the Falcons, but , I don’t have high hopes his yardage total will be the difference-maker. I think it makes much more sense to bet on Jones OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns which are currently -125 at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Matt Ryan Passing Yards Total 250.5 (OVER -125/UNDER -115)

Speaking of quarterbacks I don’t have high hopes for, let's move on to Matt Ryan. To be fair, Ryan has shown flashes of a former MVP quarterback and future Hall of Famer. However, that is all those moments were. Flashes. The truth is that Matt Ryan is finally showing his age and, even if he won’t admit it, might be nearing the end of his career. This is what makes it so hard to predict what he will do because he is both amazing and a little over the hill. 

Last week, Ryan looked every day of his 36 years in a horrific performance against the Dallas Cowboys. Ryan completed just nine passes on 21 attempts for 117 yards and two interceptions. Yet, the week before he went off on the Saints for 343 yards and two touchdowns. The week before that, 146 yards against Panthers. See what I mean here. There is nothing more frustrating than trying to predict inconsistency. 

Luckily, the Patriots' defense has been consistent. Consistent in shutting down opposing quarterbacks that is. New England ranks eighth in the NFL in passing yards allowed and sixths in opponents passing yards per play. 

It should be pretty clear at this point that I don’t think either of these quarterbacks goes over their total this week. I will give a slight edge to Ryan because he has the talent to go off on any team, any week. Mac Jones isn’t quite there yet. 

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