Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka prediction and odds for Wimbledon quarterfinals

Madison Keys has broken through to her first quarterfinals at Wimbledon since 2015, but faces a stiff test in Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka.

Sabalenka has one of the fiercest serves on tour and enters as the considerable favorite, but Keys is one of the stories of the tournament, rallying from down a set and a break in the round of 16 to stun Mirra Andreeva.

Keys has won the only meeting between the two women, back in 2021 on grass, what can we expect in this matchup?

Here are the odds for this highly anticipated quarterfinals matchup:

Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka odds, spread and total

Moneyline:

• Keys: +162
• Sabalenka: -196

Spread:

• Keys: +3.5 (-130)
• Sabalenka: -3.5 (-104)

Total: 22.5 (Over -108/Under -126)

Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka prediction and pick

Keys has been rolling at Wimbledon, but she's drawn some favorable matchups along the way, rallying to beat an upstart Andreeva, but is only 16 and inexperienced at the WTA level (ranked 102 in the world). Keys has beaten only one player inside the top 100 through four wins at the All England Club.

Meanwhile, Sabalenka is dominating this fortnight. She has faced all but one player inside the top 50 in the world and only dropped a set in the process. In the Round of 16, she disposed of Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4, 6-0 with her blistering first serve, winning 77% of first serve points.

I also question the cardio of Keys, who hasn't made it this far in either grand slam this year. Meanwhile, Sabalenka is in as good of grand slam form as anyone except for Iga Swiatek, winning the Australian Open and making the semis at the French Open.

While Keys is a nice story, I believe that Sabalenka is as tough an out as anyone on the quick grass surface with her first serve and will take care of the American in straight sets and cover the game spread.

PICK: Aryna Sabalenka -3.5 Games (-104)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.