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Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Prediction and Odds (Montreal Can't be Trusted to Cover at Home)

By Matt De Saro

The Toronto Maple Leafs match up very well against the Montreal Canadiens and should cruise to a win tonight.
The Toronto Maple Leafs match up very well against the Montreal Canadiens and should cruise to a win tonight. / Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports
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One of the most storied rivalries in the NHL sees its latest game go down on Family Day in Canada with the Montreal Canadiens hosting the Toronto Maple Leafs. A quick look over the odds tells us that the Maple Leafs are heavy favorites to take out their rivals tonight. The Habs have been playing better as of late, winning two in a row after dropping eight straight.

I’m not saying that an outright upset is in the cards, but Montreal won’t take this loss laying down. These two teams have already played once this year and the Habs came away with a win on opening night back in October. A lot has changed since then. Toronto is the third-ranked team in the Atlantic Division with a 32-31-3 overall record while the Canadiens are just 10-33-7.

Here are the odds for tonight’s matchup, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Odds and Total

Moneyline:

  • Maple Leafs -400
  • Canadiens +320

Puck line:

  • Maple Leafs -1.5 (-150)
  • Canadiens +1.5 (+125)

Total:

  • 6.0 (Over -125/Under +105)

Maple Leafs vs. Canadiens Prediction and Pick

As much as I want to take a shot, the Canadiens are a tough sell no matter which way you slice it. They are just 6-17-1 at home this season and 1-8-1 over their last 10 games. Making matters even worse, they are the worst team in the NHL against the spread with a 27-22 record meaning they cover exactly 20% of the time. Compare that with the Maple Leafs who are the fourth-best team against the spread with an ATS record of 32-16. This means that, while Montreal is covering 20 percent of the time. Toronto is covering 66.7% of the time. 

So, even with their little win streak going on, Montreal is a team that has just one-two wins in their last 10 games. They rank dead last in goals per game (2.2), goals against per game (3.68), and differential (-85). Basically, they are the worst team in the NHL, can’t cover spreads, and should be faded or ignored moving forward. 

Pick: Maple Leafs -1.5 (-150)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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