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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction and Odds for Game 3 (Penalties Have Hurt Toronto Against Defending Champs)

By Iain MacMillan

The Maple Leafs head to Tampa Bay for their Game 3 against the Lightning.
The Maple Leafs head to Tampa Bay for their Game 3 against the Lightning. / Claus Andersen/GettyImages
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The Toronto Maple Leafs head to Tampa Bay for Game 3 with the Lightning on Friday night. The series is all tied up after the Lightning won Game 2 in Toronto by a final score of 5-3.

The story of the first two games has been penalties for the Leafs. Toronto has been shorthanded for 22:39 through the first two games of the series. With that much time short-handed, the Maple Leafs should feel lucky to have the series tied at 2-2 heading into Game 3.

Here are the odds via WynnBET Sportsbook for Friday night's Game 3.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Odds and Total

Moneyline:

  • Maple Leafs -110
  • Lightning -110

Puck line:

  • Maple Leafs +1.5 (-250)
  • Lightning -1.5 (+200)

Total:

  • 6.5 (Over +100/Under -120)

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Betting Trends

  • Maple Leafs are 4-1 in their last five games.
  • The OVER is 12-3 in the Maple Leafs' last 15 road games.
  • Maple Leafs are 8-3 in their last 11 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents.
  • The OVER is 9-2 in the Lightning's last 11 games.
  • The Lightning are 6-1 in their last seven home games.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction and Pick

The Lightning put an abysmal Game 1 in their rearview mirror and showed everyone why they're the back-to-back Stanley Cup champions in Game 2. As much as it pains me as a Leafs fan to say, getting them at -110 on their home ice in Game 3 is a gift.

The Lightning are averaging 12.76 scoring chances per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 action through the first two games, which is the second most among all playoff teams. They also have out-performed the Maple Leafs in 5-on-5 CORSI%, at 52.29 percent compared to Toronto at 47.71 percent.

Finally, the X-factor, Andrei Vasilevskiy, who has arguably been the best goaltender in the NHL over the past few seasons. He has yet to show his best stuff in this series, and he's bound to steal a game for the Lightning before it's all said and done.

This one is, unfortunately, a no-brainer for me.

Pick: Lightning -110

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

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