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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction and Odds (Toronto's Goaltending Will Cost Them)

By Iain MacMillan

The Lightning and Maple Leafs will face off for the final team in the regular season on Thursday night.
The Lightning and Maple Leafs will face off for the final team in the regular season on Thursday night. / Mike Ehrmann/GettyImages
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The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning will face-off on Thursday night in a preview of a likely first round playoff matchup. If the current seeding stays as is, the two teams will be matched up in the opening round of the postseason with the Leafs getting home ice advantage.

The Leafs have won two of the three games between these teams this season, so Tampa Bay has a chance to even the regular season series tonight.

Let's break down the odds for the game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Odds and Total

Moneyline:

  • Maple Leafs +100
  • Lightning -120

Puck line:

  • Maple Leafs +1.5 (-240)
  • Lightning -1.5 (+195)

Total:

  • 7 (Over +110/Under -130)

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Betting Trends

  • The OVER is 8-4 in the Maple Leafs' last 12 games.
  • Maple Leafs are 6-1 in their last seven games.
  • Maple Leafs are 4-1 in their last five games vs. Lightning.
  • The OVER is 8-3 in the Lightning's last 11 games.
  • Lightning are 1-4 in last five games against Atlantic Division opponents.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction and Pick

I simply can't trust the Maple Leafs against good hockey teams with how their goaltending has been since the start of the 2022 calendar year. They rank 29th in save percentage of their last 25 games, which is completely unacceptable for a team as talented as they are. It's mind-blowing that they're able to have the record they have without having any level of ability in between the pipes.

Now, they have to face a Lightning team that is just as good everywhere else, but ranks ninth in team save percentage of the same stretch.

Tampa Bay also ranks eighth in high danger scoring chances, so I expect the Lightning to get plenty of chances against the Maple Leafs goaltender, and likely fill the net.

Pick: Lightning -120

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

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