Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction and Odds for Game 4 (More Goals to Come in Eastern Conference Series)
The Toronto Maple Leafs take a 2-1 series lead into Tampa Bay on Sunday night. The Lightning, who are trying to pull off the first three-peat in the salary cap era, are in danger of falling to a 3-1 deficit before the series returns to Toronto for Game 5.
Can Toronto steal another game in Tampa Bay?
Let's take a look at the odds for the matchup, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Odds and Total
Moneyline:
- Maple Leafs +100
- Lightning -120
Puck line:
- Maple Leafs +1.5 (-250)
- Lightning -1.5 (+200)
Total:
- 6.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Betting Trends
- Maple Leafs are 6-3 in their last nine games vs. Lightning.
- The OVER is 13-3 in the Maple Leafs' last 16 road games.
- The OVER is 10-2 in the Lightning's last 12 games.
- Lightning are 8-4 in their last 12 games.
Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction and Pick
The story of the series thus far has been penalties, Neither team can seem to stay out of the box, and they're first and second in powerplay time amongst all playoff teams. The Maple Leafs have the most powerplay minutes at 28:20, and the Lightning are right behind them with 28:07 powerplay minutes.
Thankfully for Toronto, the Leafs have been much more effective with a man advantage. They have a CORSI% of 85% when on powerplay, and have even scored two short-handed goals.
The biggest surprise of the series has been the poor play by Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevsky. He's been the top goaltender in the NHL over the past few seasons, but he has a save percentage of just 87.25 percent through the first three games.
These are two of the best offenses in the NHL, and plenty of powerplay opportunities and subpar goaltending from the Lightning has led to plenty of goals. I expect more of the same in Game 4.
Pick: Maple Leafs/Lightning OVER 6.5 (-110)
You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.