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Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction and Odds for Game 6 (Toronto Fighting Demons of Playoffs Past)

By Iain MacMillan

The Maple Leafs head to Tampa Bay for Game 6 of their series with the Lightning.
The Maple Leafs head to Tampa Bay for Game 6 of their series with the Lightning. / Claus Andersen/GettyImages
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The Toronto Maple Leafs had a monumental win in Game 5 to take the 3-2 series lead. After going down 2-0 early, it looked like the early makings of a second-straight blowout at the hands of the Lightning. Instead, they stormed back to win the game by a final score of 4-3.

Now the Maple Leafs head to Tampa Bay for Game 6. With a history of losing in Game 7s, a win tonight to avoid a final game would come as a relief for Leafs fans everywhere.

In order to do that, they'll need to break the trend of the Lightning being 16-0 after a playoff loss, dating back to 2020.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Odds and Total

Moneyline:

  • Maple Leafs +110
  • Lightning -130

Puck line:

  • Maple Leafs +1.5 (-230)
  • Lightning -1.5 (+190)

Total:

  • 6.5 (Over -120/Under +100)

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Betting Trends

  • The OVER is 5-1 in the Maple Leafs' last six games.
  • Maple Leafs are 6-2 in their last eight games.
  • The OVER is 14-3 in the Maple Leafs' last 17 road games.
  • The OVER is 6-1 in the Lightning's last seven games.
  • The OVER is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these teams.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction and Pick

A series that has been defined by penalties is so tough to handicap. Who will spend more time in the box tonight? When will penalties happen in pivotal moments? It's impossible to tell.

What I can say, is that the Lightning have been the better team in 5-on-5 when you look at the analytics. They have a 5-on-5 CORSI% of 52.69% in the series, and their expected goals per 60 minutes during 5-on-5 play is 2.64 compared to the Maple Leafs at 2.61.

Tampa Bay has also been better at creating high-danger scoring chances, averaging 13.04 compared to the Leafs at 10.92.

Then, there's just the psychological factor of the game. I hate using that when handicapping, but there is something for it in this specific situation. The Maple Leafs have six-straight first round exits, and the Lightning are coming off back-to-back Stanley Cup wins. If there's one team that has the mental and experience edge tonight, it's Tampa Bay.

Pick: Lightning -130

You can track Iain's bets on Betstamp here.

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