March Madness 2022 (Trends for the NCAA Women's Tournament)

The NCAA Women’s Tournament's "First Four" gets underway Thursday evening and fans and bettors alike are counting the hours before the first major upset occurs. That’s what March Madness is all about right?

But, with the proper research, some of the “unlikely” outcomes can actually be pretty predictable. With a lot of work and a little luck, these games are always as hard to beat as they look. 

With that in mind, let's look back into the past at some of the more relevant trends for the NCAA women’s tournament. 

Bet Favorites to Win the NCAA Tournament

Get this: zero No. 4 seeds or below have won the Tournament since it expanded to 64 teams in 1994.

This is a very telling statistic and suggests that favorites in the women’s tournament are more sure than on the men’s side of things. There are several examples of this dominance that we can take a quick look at. 

First of all, No. 14 and No. 15 seeded teams are a combined 0-216 straight up over the last 27 years in tournament play. Not a single win. No. 16 seeds are 1-108 with the one win being Harvard in 1998. In contrast, the Men’s Tournament sees around 15% of No. 14 seeds win and seven percent of No. 15 seeds win. 

While this may speak to a potential gap between good teams in the women’s tournament and the great teams, don't forget about the top seeds having home court advantage in the first few rounds. Major upsets are few and far between as a result; something to keep in mind when making your daily picks for the next couple of weeks. 

No. 2 & No. 3 Seeds have Combined to win 6 of the last 27 NCAA Tournaments

While there is basically zero value on betting a dark horse to win the Women’s Tournament, it's not only No. 1 seeds that come out on top. No. 3 seeds have won the title twice and No. 2 seeds four times. Compared to the 21 championships that top-seeded teams have it may not seem like much, and it isn’t. But, it's nice to know that betting on anything other than a No. 1 seed isn’t a total mistake. 

Over the last 27 seasons, Number two seeds average 10.7 total wins per year or 2.67 wins per team. The four No. 2 seeds this year are Arizona, Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Maryland. Of those teams, Arizona has the best odds at WynnBET to win it all at +2500 while Tennessee has the longest odds at +5000.

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