March Madness Best Bets for Friday's Sweet 16 Action (Miami Set to Roll)

Maybe it's just not my NCAA Tournament? Maybe, but it's not how you start, it's how you finish.

Friday's Sweet 16 action may be a bit more under the radar than Thursday's, but I see a few betting edges that are worth playing in the regional semifinals.

We have four games to choose from an I have plays on three of them. We'll see if I end up on St. Peter's or the over in that one, my two leans, but given the Peacocks physical defense and the potential for the Boilermakers to live at the line, I may not test my luck.

Let's empty to clip and try to end the season on a high note.

Odds courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook

Column Record: 114-124-3 (-17.9 units) (Woof what a cold streak)

Providence (+7.5) vs. Kansas

While many have discussed at length about the 'luck' factor related to the Friars, who amounted an 11-2 record in games decided by five or less this season, this is a veteran bunch who has made living off of finding ways to win.

They will be going up against a talented No. 1 seed Kansas squad, but Bill Self's team has been mediocre at best on the defensive side of the ball. For starters, the team doesn't excel anywhere on D, ranking in the middle of the pack in turnovers forced and defensive rebounding rate.

Further, ShotQuality ranks the Jayhawks defense 46th in the country, and gives the team an adjusted record of 24-12. This means the team has benefitted from some shot variance in their favor.

Providence may not be the most lethal perimeter shooting team but they have a reliable big man in Nate Watson and capable 3-point threats around Al Durham in Jared Bynum and AJ Reeves, who both shot north of 38% from beyond the arc this season.

Overall, Kansas struggled to put away a Creighton team down their two most impactful players in the Round of 32, and the team has won close games all season. For what it's worth, Providence is 8-2 as an underdog against the spread, while the Jayhawks are 14-16 as a favorite this season.

Yes, Kansas has the star power with Ochai Agbaji and a healthy Remy Martin, but I think they are going to struggle to get enough stops to pull away from the veteran Friars who have found a way to outperform expectations all season.

PICK: Providence +7.5, play to +7, ML for 0.5 Units (+245)

UCLA (-2) vs. North Carolina

For starters, Jaime Jaquez Jr. is on track to play for this one, big against the versatile North Carolina offense that can stretch the floor with Brady Manek.

I've landed on the Bruins in this one after taking a step back and examining UNC's run. The team has been shooting lights out from three (a blistering 40% from beyond the arc during the first weekend of the tourney) and playing games on their terms, fast.

However, UCLA forces teams to play their style, methodical and based on execution. The Bruins have one of the best floor generals in the country in Tyger Campbell that anchors a unit that has the fifth lowest turnover rate and plays at a bottom 100 adjusted tempo, per KenPom. The team is top 100 on both sides of the ball in terms of rebounding rate and has shot making with the likes of Johnny Juzang to out score UNC in the half court.

If the Heels can't run, they are in trouble. The team is bottom 20 in the country in forcing turnovers and the Bruins have the third best potential quick points scored off brakaway steals per 100 trips upcourt, per Halsemetrics, which is the value of field goal attempts taken within 10 seconds of a steal. In short, limiting easy baskets.

I think UNC regresses in this one and the veteran Bruins head to a second straight Elite 8.

PICK: UCLA -2 (2U)

Miami (-140) vs. Iowa State

Yes, Iowa State has a top five defense in the country, forcing turnovers at a top five clip and shutting off the perimeter, but Miami's veteran backcourt is the perfect remedy to this elite unit.

Guards Charlie Moore and Isaiah Wong headline a Hurricane's offense that is top 10 in limiting turnovers and are more than capable of beating their man off the bounce and scoring in close. The team is 17th in the country in mid-range field goal percentage and 11th at finishing at the rim, per Haslemetrics.

Iowa State's offense is predicated on if they can force turnovers and score before the opposition is set. Overall the team is 160th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 294th in turnover rate.

I don't see many opportunities for that against a Miami team that doesn't turn the ball over, and is able to score with such ease. The team plays five-out with big man Sam Waardenburg sporting a 42% 3-point percentage and will drag the prodding ISU bigs away from the paint, opening up driving lanes and easy finishes for the 'Canes.

Iowa State failed to break 60 points in both games last weekend, while Miami's ceiling is closer to 80 points. Keep in mind that Iowa State's turnover driven defense leads to a ton of free throw attempts, the team is 316th in opponent free throw rate, and Miami is shooting 74% as a team.

Iowa State played two putrid offenses in LSU and Wisconsin, and will struggle to keep pace with a high octane one in Miami.

PICK: Miami ML -140 (5U), Miami/UCLA Parlay (+190)

College Basketball Best Bets

• St. Peter's +13, ML for 0.5 Units (+660)

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