March Madness Sweet 16 Upset Picks (Cougars, Wolverines, Tar Heels Look Feisty in NCAA Men's Tournament)
By Joe Summers
There's been a number of exciting upsets in the NCAA Tournament to this point, highlighted by No. 15 Saint Peter's making the Sweet 16 with victories over No. 2 Kentucky and No. 7 Murray State.
In total, there's been 13 upsets so far. We've got four double digit seeds left in the tourney and there's a few underdogs I'm eyeing as we draw closer to declaring a champion.
Let's check out those underdogs providing value and see if we can pick up some cash on the way. All odds courtesy of our friends at WynnBET Sportsbook:
Houston (+105) vs Arizona
The Cougars have been an analytics darling all year and can absolutely take a Wildcats team down that looks ripe for an upset. Arizona barely squeaked by TCU thanks to some miracle plays from Benedict Mathurin down the stretch and haven't covered the spread in either of their two tournament games.
Houston, meanwhile, has looked dominant. Other than Gonzaga, the Cougars are the only team remaining with both a top-10 offense and defense, per KenPom. TCU laid the blueprint for beating Arizona: lots of offensive rebounds. The Horned Frogs secured 20 and took advantage of a Wildcats team that ranks 191st nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. Well, Houston just so happens to have the 2nd-best offensive rebounding rate in the country.
The Wildcats have struggled to protect the ball and on defense lately as well, ranking in the 11th percentile in turnover percentage and 33rd in defensive rating over their last five games. Houston is excellent at forcing turnovers and have the offense to punish Arizona, so I love the value on a hungry, hot team to take down the favorites.
Michigan (+185) vs Villanova
I've been on the record twice on this website saying that I didn't think Michigan was a tournament team and picked them to lose each of their first two games. But I've got to learn from my mistakes and have to admit, the Wolverines belong. I suppose when you're hot, you're hot.
And Michigan is definitely hot. They've outright won four of their last five games as underdogs and covered the spread in five of their last six. Villanova is beatable inside, ranking in the 1st percentile in block percentage over their last five games and 129th in opposing two-point shooting percentage on the season. The Wolverines' offense is built around Hunter Dickinson controlling the interior and the Wildcats don't have anyone who can stop him down low.
Meanwhile, Villanova's offense is dependent on a ton of three-point shots and Michigan just held Tennessee to 2/18 from beyond the arc and Colorado State to 12/35 in the game before that. They don't surrender free throw attempts thanks to one of the best foul rates in the country either, so the Wildcats will need to hit those shots to win.
But you know the saying: live by the three, die by the three. At +185, I'm happy to take a shot on the surging Wolverines given how well they match up with Villanova.
North Carolina (+125) vs UCLA
In perhaps the game of the tournament so far, the Tar Heels withstood a 25-point comeback to beat No. 1 Baylor in overtime. They're firing on all cylinders and just beat Duke by 13 in the ACC Tournament earlier this month.
UCLA was impressive in their win over Saint Mary's but barely squeaked by Akron in the opening round. Their defense has struggled of late, ranking in the 39th percentile in rating over their last five games. Rebounding has been a problem and they're a huge disadvantage against a Tar Heels team that has the second-best defensive rebounding rate in the country.
North Carolina's offense is on fire and their ball movement has been fantastic as they're in the 100th percentile in assist percentage (how many of their baskets come from an assist) over their last five. But it's their defense that has really impressed, jumping from a 47th-percentile ranking in rating on the season up to the 87th.
They're poised to knock off the Bruins and look like one of the best teams in college basketball. Give me the beautiful value on the Tar Heels to stay hot.
If you're with me and like any of these underdogs or want to take a shot on someone else, head on over to WynnBET to lock in those upset picks now before the lines have a chance to move!
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.
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