March Madness Upset Picks for the Round of 32 (Oakland's Dream Run Continues)
By Reed Wallach
While there has been a ton of college basketball over the last two days, we must reset and turn our attention to what happened on the first day of the tournament, as teams look to extend its season to next weekend.
Double digit seeds dominated the headlines on Thursday, including conference tournament winning and bid stealing Oregon and NC State, but no team was more surprising than Oakland, who stunned Kentucky in first round play.
Will the upsets continue on Saturday in second round action? Here’s two underdogs I believe can make the Sweet 16.
Believe me? Want to go against me? Do it at DraftKings Sportsbook, who is giving new users $150 in bonus bets when they sign up through the link below and place a $5 first wager! Get started below
Best Upset Picks for Second Round of NCAA Tournament
- Oakland (+215) vs. North Carolina State
- Oregon (+190) vs. Creighton
Oakland vs. North Carolina State Prediction and Pick
Both of these teams would qualify as surprises in the Sweet 16 after stunning the nation in the first round, but Oakland is the massive underdog against the Wolfpack, who has captured the college basketball world after winning five straight games in the ACC Tournament and another on Thursday in the first round against Texas Tech.
Meanwhile, Oakland shocked Kentucky in first round play behind the play of Ben Gohlke, who made 10-of-20 three’s (not a typo).
The Golden Grizzlies may not need such a heroic effort this time around considering the team shot 34% on two’s and 48% on three’s with Gohlke making 10 of the 15. The rest of the team helped shoulder the load late, namely Trey Townsend, who may be able to play more of a role in this matchup against the smaller NC State front court compared to Kentucky.
Townsend is a terror with the ball in his hands, able to rack up fouls and step out and shoot form the perimeter, making me confident he can put both DJ Burns and Ben Middlebrooks in foul trouble.
Meanwhile, Oakland will likely stick with its zone defense that the Wolfpack didn’t see much of this season – just three-percent – which means that this can be a tough prep with a quick turnaround.
Both teams are likely running on fumes, but it’s Oakland who is far more comfortable from the perimeter, which the Golden Grizzlies may force the Wolfpack to be. The Wolfpack did shoot threes at a bottom 10 rate and made only 34% of them. The team is reliant on getting inside, but can Oakland turn this into a jump shooting contest?
Maybe, I think this change in expectation for NC State, going from underdog to clear favorite, may play a role.
PICK: Oakland ML (+215)
Oregon vs. Creighton Prediction and Pick
I think this is a poor matchup for the Bluejays, who were able to cruise past Akron after a competitive second half, but due to a 58% 3-point shooting effort. However, the team allowed Akron to generate nine offensive rebounds and coughed up the ball 14 times.
The Bluejays ball hanlders have struggled with ball pressure all season, and I believe that Oregon's length in the back court with Jermaine Couisnard and Jackson Shelstad can give Creighton issues.
On a quick turnaround, I expect Dana Altman to have his team prepared and for Greg McDermott's team given the ever-changing nature of the Oregon defense. The team plays morphing zone defenses that is always trick to prep for with extra time, not only on a quick change.
Further, I believe the Ducks are set to dominate the shot volume in this game, which gives me a lot of confidence backing the underdog. Creighton doesn't pressure the ball whatsoever – last in the country in turnover rate – and are 283rd in offensive rebounding rate.
With the Ducks ability to force turnovers, top third in the country, and use Dante down low to get extra shots, I feel confident that Oregon can skew this game in its favor with simply more shots on target.
Lastly, Creighton games are always very fickle. The team is top 10 in 3-point rate. If this becomes a jump shooting contest and the team hits more than 58% of its shots from deep, it becomes a tough ask to stay within striking distance, but I believe Oregon’s ability to win on the margins with a unique defense gives the underdog plenty of life on Saturday.
PICK: Oregon +190
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Track Reed's bets here!