March Madness Wild Wagering Trends for the 2022 NCAA Men's Tournament
By Matt De Saro
The NCAA men's tournament is here and there's always tons of interesting trends pertaining to the opening round. Let's break down a pair that really stuck out to me ahead of Round 1.
All odds are provided by WynnBET Sportsbook.
The No. 5 vs No. 12 Seed Trend in March Madness
I usually ignore seed vs. seed trends due to a couple of factors. Those include the fact that teams are not the same year to year and the inherent randomness involved. However, for some reason, No. 12 seeds continually pose problems for No. 5 teams in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. For example, over the last 10 years, No. 5 seeds are 16-17 straight up against No. 12 seeds. No. 5 seeds are 11-21-1 against the spread during that span. In the last four years, No. 5 seeds are 10-7 SU and 5-11-1 against the spread. To put that into perspective, No. 12 seeds are 11-5-1 ATS in the last four years in the first round.
This is not a recent trend either. Since the 1985 season when the NCAA Tournament field expanded, the 12 seed is 51-93 against No. 5 seeds. WynnBET has a prop bet for how many 12 seeds will win their first-round games with the following odds:
- One +100
- Two +220
- None+333
- Three +1000
- Four +8000
Here are the 5 vs. 12 games to keep an eye on for this year’s NCAA Tournament:
- West: No. 5 UConn vs. No. 12 New Mexico State
- South: No. 5 Houston vs. No. 12 UAB
- East: No. 5 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 12 (Winner of Wyoming/Indiana)
- Midwest: No. 5 Iowa vs. No. 12 Richmond
Gonzaga has made the Sweet 16 Six Years in a Row
Gonzaga sometimes gets a bad rap as being a bad team in the NCAA Tournament but that just isn’t the case at all. The reason for this, I believe, is that they have yet to actually win a title game. They made it to the finals in 2017 and 2021, but ultimately fell when it mattered the most. So while maybe the Bulldogs are an iffy bet in the title game, they annually dominate in the opening rounds. So much so that the Bulldogs haven’t missed the Sweet 16 in the last six tournaments.
They have also made two Elite Eight appearances during that span in addition to their trips to the National Title game. As it stands, Gonzaga is +325 to win it all and -160 to win the West region.
WynnBET also has odds for whether or not a No. 1 seed wins the tournament at -105.
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