Mariners vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for June 7 (Trouble for Justin Verlander?)
By Josh Yourish
Benches cleared in the first game of this AL West series, a Seattle Mariners (25-30) win over the division leading Houston Astros (35-20). Houston reliever Héctor Neris hit Ty France with a pitch in the ninth inning of what was at the time a one-run game. When the dust settled, Julio Rodriguez hit a two-run homer off of Neris to seal the game for Seattle.
Despite the separation in the standings, the season series between these two is tied 5-5.
Odds are available at the WynnBET Sportsbook
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line
- Mariners +1.5 (+100)
- Astros -1.5 (-120)
Moneyline
- Mariners +220
- Astros -245
Total
8 (Over -105 / Under -115)
Mariners vs. Astros Prediction and Pick
At 39 years old, Justin Verlander still looks like one of if not the best pitcher in major league baseball. He’s currently the favorite for the AL Cy Young at +350. He won that award for the second time in 2019, but he pitched just six innings over the next two seasons. Well, now he’s back on track with a 2.23 ERA, the only possible concern is his strikeouts per nine innings is his lowest number since 2015.
Verlander’s whiff rate on his fastball has been cut in half from his 2019 campaign. Back then he got a swing miss on a 4-seam fastball 31% of the time, but now that number is on 14.9%, yet his usage has held firm throwing that pitch about half the time.
That could potentially be bad news going forward, and this was an issue for JV last time he faced this Mariners lineup. Julio Rodriguez, the Mariners much heralded rookie, has a slugging percentage well over 200 points higher against fastballs compared to breaking pitches.
Rodriguez hit one of the Mariners four home runs last time they faced Verlander in a 6-1 win.
Chris Flexen has faced Houston twice on the year and is 0-2 against the Astros, but last time facing them he went seven and gave up just one run. It might be a time to take a swing on a huge moneyline dog, but that’s a little too bold for me.
Pick: Mariners +1.5 (+100)
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