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Mariners vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for Saturday, July 30 (Familiarity with Valdez Gives Mariners Upper Hand)

By Josh Yourish

Seattle Mariners manager Scott Servais and Julio Rodriguez
Seattle Mariners manager Scott Servais and Julio Rodriguez / Lindsey Wasson-USA TODAY Sports
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It seems that Houston has Seattle’s number coming out of the All-Star break. The Astros have won five straight against the Mariners and now lead the division by 12 games. Houston is 66-35 and Seattle holds second in the AL West at 54-47. Framber Valdez gets the start for Houston as they try to win Game 3 of this four-game series. Chris Flexen takes the mound for Seattle. 

Valdez comes in at 9-4 with a 2.74 ERA and is making his 20th start of the year, as is Flexen. The Mariners starter enters at 7-8 with a 3.75 ERA. 

Odds are available for the AL West series at WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

  • Mariners +1.5 (-125)
  • Astros -1.5 (+105)

Moneyline

  • Mariners +175
  • Astros -190

Total

  • 8.0 (Over -110 / Under -110)

Mariners vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

These two teams are becoming very familiar with each other, as this will be the 18th meeting of the year between the divisional opponents. Seattle clearly has realized that they want to compete with Houston and need help to do it. Last night they completed a trade for Luis Castillo, the All-Star starting pitcher from Cincinnati. 

A big trade like that has to provide a jolt to the team that desperately needs to take a win from the AL West leaders. Houston leads the season series 11-6 and has Framber Valdez on the mound. Valdez has been nails for the Astros. He is in the 87th percentile of expected slugging percentage and 88th percentile of barrel rate. He has only allowed six home runs all year and despite a misleading max exit velocity allowed that is in the bottom one percent of pitchers, he does not typically get hit hard. 

Seattle will not beat Valdez with home runs, but they might be able to string together enough hits to take at least one game of this series. They are familiar with Valdez as his last outing was also against the Mariners. Flexen however did not pitch in that recent series. While the Astros did win the game 8-5, Seattle managed eight hits off of Valdez and they are 40-13 in games in which they record eight or more hits. 

Familiarity will be helpful to the Mariners and they may be able to get to Valdez today. 

Pick: Mariners +1.5 (-125)

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