Mariners vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for Thursday, July 28 (Trust Logan Gilbert, Seattle)

The two best teams in the AL West will face off for the second time post-All-Star break with the Houston Astros hosting the Seattle Mariners at 8:10 p.m. EST on Thursday. 

Houston got the best of the Mariners in their last series, pulling off the sweep, but was promptly swept by the last-place Oakland Athletics earlier this week. 

Seattle, meanwhile, bounced back by sweeping the Texas Rangers, thanks to this clutch three-run homer by Julio Rodriguez on Thursday: 

So, a lot of brooms have been brought out in the AL West lately. 

Now, Seattle is hoping to bridge the 10-game gap between it and the Astros in this weekend series. 

Here are the odds from WynnBET for Game 1 of the series on Thursday: 

Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

• Mariners: +1.5 (-170)
• Astros: -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline:

• Mariners: +125
• Astros: -135

Total: 

• 8 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mariners vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

The Mariners are slight dogs on the road here, but they certainly have the advantage on the mound. 

Logan Gilbert (10-4, 2.77 ERA) will get the ball for Seattle against Jose Urquidy (9-4, 3.93 ERA) on Thursday. 

I have to give Urquidy credit, because he’s turned things around since June and threw six innings of one-run ball against the Mariners in his last outing, but that also came with Rodriguez out of the lineup. 

Gilbert has allowed more than three runs in a start just three times in 20 outings, and he tossed six innings of two-run ball in a 3-1 loss to Houston last week. 

The difference is that Urquidy is in the 19th percentile in baseball in expected ERA, while Gilbert is better, in the 41st percentile. Urquidy also has a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) that is over a whole run higher than Gilbert’s. Here’s a look at Urquidy’s profile this season, per Baseball Savant: 

After watching Houston struggle with Oakland, there may be some value in backing the Mariners and Gilbert as road dogs. 

Lean: Mariners ML (+125)

Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.