The Houston Astros may be leading the AL West, but they have had trouble finding consistent success against the Seattle Mariners. After beating the Astros in Game 1 of this series, the 4th place Mariners moved to 5-5 on the year against their division rivals and 6-2 in their last eight contests.
The Mariners are not a good team because of this though. But, there are a few areas that add value to the M’s and their chances of another upset to close out this series.
Here are the odds for this game, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, and Total
- Mariners: +1.5 (-150)
- Astros: -1.5 (-130)
- Mariners: +125
- Astros: -150
- Total 10.5 (Over -110/Under -110)
Mariners vs. Astros Prediction and Pick
One issue I have with the Astros here is their starter, Jose Urquidy. His season stats are nothing to get excited about with a 4.76 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. While those are bad enough, Urquidy has not pitched well against the Mariners’ current roster. His batting average against (BAA) of .312 is a bad sign heading into this series finale. But that is only half of the issue. Urquidy has been pretty good overall aside from two awful starts this year. Both of those games were against the Mariners and saw him allow a combined 11 runs in 8 ⅔ innings.
On the flip side, Seattle’s starter for this game, Marco Gonzales, has been solid against the Astros. In three starts, Gonzales racked up 20 ⅓ innings while giving up six earned runs and striking out 10.
While I like Gonzales to limit the Astros in this game, I worry about what happens after he leaves the game. He’s not gone less than six innings against the Astros yet this year but three innings with the eighth-worst bullpen in the MLB can be an eternity. Therefore I want to focus on the time that Gonzales can control the game and take the Mariners to win the first five innings.
Pick: Mariners F5
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