Mariners vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, May 3 (Mariners Win Low-Scoring Contest)

Chris Flexen takes the mound for Seattle against the Astros today
Chris Flexen takes the mound for Seattle against the Astros today / Julio Aguilar/GettyImages

After a 3-0 Houston win in the first game of this three-game set, the 12-11 Astros hope to earn a second straight victory has they host the 12-11 Seattle Mariners tonight at 8:10 p.m. EST.

Seattle has now lost five of its last six and will send Chris Flexen to the mound. Flexen has thrown a quality start in three straight outings, beginning with a six-inning, three-run performance against these Astros a couple of weeks ago.

Cristian Javier gets the call for Houston and while he hasn't gone deep into games, he's been electric so far this season. Javier has a 1.35 ERA through four starts with 16 strikeouts in 13.1 innings, but the Astros will need him to start going deeper to avoid overworking their bullpen.

Can the Mariners get back on track or will the Astros get another home win?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to evaluate this Mariners vs Astros matchup:

Mariners vs Astros Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Mariners +1.5 (-155)
  • Astros -1.5 (+127)


  • Mariners: +140
  • Astros: -150


  • 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mariners vs Astros Prediction and Pick

Chris Flexen is one of my favorite young pitchers in the game and despite poor underlying metrics so far this year, I still believe that he's going to be great the rest of the season. He has a quality start in three straight outings after a rough first appearance and has allowed three or fewer rules in 15 of his last 17 starts, dating back to last season.

Houston's offense hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire, either. The Astros have scored three runs or fewer in four of their previous five games and while Cristian Javier has been great, I'm always hesitant to trust pitchers that lack the stamina to eat up many innings. The best case scenario for Javier today is probably pitching five innings.

Again, that's best case, and it's more likely he only goes three or four. That means a lot of innings for an Astros bullpen that's strong, but it only takes one rough outing for one reliever to blow the whole thing up.

The Mariners have the fifth-lowest bullpen ERA in the MLB, so they have an edge there as well. I love the value on the visitors today and think we're getting a great buy-low spot behind an excellent pitcher in Flexen.

But I also favor the under. It's hit in each of Flexen's last two starts and has been a fantastic bet in Astros games of late. In Houston's last dozen contests, the under is 10-2. That trend continues today behind an inflated total, albeit in a Seattle win.

Pick: Mariners (+140) and Under 8.5 (-110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.