Mariners vs. Athletics Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, September 20 (Back Seattle's Bats in Oakland)

The Seattle Mariners are stuck in the final Wild Card spot right now, but it may not be reason to worry. They are still five games ahead of the Orioles and now begin their penultimate three-game series with the Oakland Athletics. 

Tonight, it is Seattle’s big deadline acquisition, Luis Castillo on the mound for the ninth time as a Mariner. JP Sears makes the start for Oakland on the other side. 

Mariners vs. Athletics Odds, Run Line and Total

Mariners vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Sears has allowed 11 runs in his last six innings on the mound. That accounts for his two starts prior to tonight against Seattle. He has gotten pounded when he goes out on the mound in September and his ERA has shot up to 3.90 from 2.37 at the start of the month. His fielding independent pitching has shot up even higher to 4.66 and I can’t imagine a world where all his numbers don’t keep going up. 

Sears expected slugging is in the bottom 10% of the league, so is his strikeout rate, his whiff rate, and his hard hit rate. Sears doesn’t miss bats and when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. 

There isn’t enough value just betting on the Mariners, even on the run line, so instead I’ll just take the over on a total that is a run and a half too low. Luis Castillo is an ace, he’s been fantastic, but if he gives up one or two runs then that will be enough for Seattle to easily take care of the rest. 

Pick: OVER 7 (+105)

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