Mariners vs. Guardians Prediction and Odds for Friday, September 2 (Mariners Extend Winning Streak)

Luis Castillo struck out 10 batters over six one-run innings against Cleveland last week
Luis Castillo struck out 10 batters over six one-run innings against Cleveland last week / Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports

If memory serves, I've only picked against my beloved Cleveland Guardians once this season. They won that game of course, but the time has come for me to put on my "Judas" mask and betray those I love once again.

After getting shut out in three of their last four games, the Guardians don't have the offensive juice right now to compete with the Seattle Mariners. It pains me to say, but Seattle is rolling and Cleveland is floundering.

With Luis Castillo taking on Zach Plesac, there's ample value on the road favorites to continue the Guardians' downward spiral.

Let's check out the odds before I change my mind and make a foolish bet based on my heart:

Mariners vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Mariners vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Luis Castillo put on a masterclass against Cleveland last week, striking out 10 batters over six one-run innings with just one walk. He's got a 2.84 ERA since joining the Seattle Mariners with an expected FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) below 1.61 in two of his last three starts. In simpler terms, he's really good.

Zach Plesac, on the other hand, followed up a 5.84 July ERA with a 4.70 ERA last month and surrendered three home runs to these Mariners in his last start. With an expected FIP above 5.76 in each of his last two outings at home, Plesac just isn't on Castillo's level. Take a look at his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile and try not to wince:

Not great for a club that's suddenly allergic to runs, like I pretended to be when I quit the cross-country team.

As a cherry on top, the trends support Seattle too. The Mariners are 17-3 in their last 20 games as road favorites, while the Guardians are 3-8 in their last 11 as home underdogs.

Sometimes, you've got to betray those you love for your own selfish interests. This is one of those times. Back Seattle at a modest price to improve to 5-1 in its last six games against Cleveland.

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.