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Mariners vs. Marlins Prediction and Odds for Sunday, May 1 (South Beach Hosts Best Pitching Matchup of the Day)

By Ben Heisler

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert leads the American League with a 0.40 ERA through his first four starts of the season.
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert leads the American League with a 0.40 ERA through his first four starts of the season. / Quinn Harris/GettyImages
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You may not think twice about the Seattle Mariners and Miami Marlins getting together for a top-level baseball viewing experience; but look a little closer and you'll notice it's likely the top pitching matchup on the board this Sunday.

Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert gets the ball for Seattle as he looks to continue his blistering start to the season. The flame-thrower in his second big league season is 3-0 with an ERA of 0.40!

He's opposed by Marlins right-hander Sandy Alcantara; off to a very impressive start himself; going 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA; throwing six-plus innings in each of his last three starts.

Here's the latest odds for today's matchup at Marlins Park at WynnBET Sportsbook.

Mariners vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Mariners: +1.5 (-190)
  • Marlins: -1.5 (+155)

Moneyline:

  • Mariners: +118
  • Marlins: -128

Total:

  • 6.5 (Over: -120/Under: +100)

Mariners vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

If you haven't picked up on what Logan Gilbert has turned into this season; you've missed out on some spectacular pitching performances.

He made 24 starts a season ago, and while the stuff remained dominant, he also gave up a bunch of home runs; allowing a whopping home-run-to-fly-ball ratio of 10.9%!

This season, he's done an exceptional job of hitting his spots; improving both his walk rate as well as allowing a HR/9 of 0.40, down from 1.28 last year.

As for Alcantara, while he's allowed slightly more than one run through the month of April (just 5 ER in 25.1 IP), he's been, for the most part terrific as well.

One thing to note is that he's continued to be successful despite his slider not getting as many swings-and-misses as in years past. While his strikeout numbers are down, Alcantara has induced a ton of weak contact, and only allowed a barrel percentage (sweet spot of the bat) to hit just 2.9% of the time.

Both offenses rank in the top 12 of baseball, but I trust both of these starting pitchers to go at least five innings and continue their dominance yet again. Rather than risk it with the game total and the bullpens; I'll put my confidence in Gilbert and Alcantara to keep the game under four total runs through five.

PICK: SEA vs. MIA FIRST FIVE INNINGS UNDER 3.5 (-120)

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE

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