Mariners vs. Nationals Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, July 12 (Josiah Gray's Rise to Continue in D.C.)

Josiah Gray allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts
Josiah Gray allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts / Tim Nwachukwu/GettyImages

We've got a battle of two teams heading in opposite directions as the 30-58 Washington Nationals host the 45-42 Seattle Mariners tonight at 7:05 PM EST.

Losers of 10 of 11, the Nationals hope Josiah Gray can snap their slump. He earned the only victory in Washington's cold streak and allowed two or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts. Gray struggles at home though, amassing a 6.42 ERA over eight outings.

Seattle brings an eight-game winning streak into the contest and turns to Chris Flexen; coming off six shutout innings against San Diego. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in a start for nearly two months, though his underlying metrics are discouraging.

Can Gray's rise continue in a desperate moment for Washington or will Seattle keep rolling?

Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook as we examine this Mariners vs Nationals matchup:

Mariners vs Nationals Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Mariners -1.5 (+140)
  • Nationals +1.5 (-170)


  • Mariners: -105
  • Nationals: -105


  • 9.5 (Over +105/Under -125)

Mariners vs Nationals Prediction and Pick

Josiah Gray is quickly turning into one of the more exciting young arms in the league. He's got a 2.46 ERA in his last seven starts and that includes a dreadful game against the Marlins in which he allowed six runs. If you remove that game, his ERA falls to a remarkable 1.29.

Among the reasons for Gray's meteoric rise is the development of a filthy slider. Opponents are hitting .181 against the pitch and it's quickly becoming one of the best in MLB.

With an increasingly powerful repertoire, Gray gives Washington a significant advantage over Seattle's starter, Chris Flexen. Flexen's 5.08 expected ERA means he's been lucky to compile a 4.00 actual ERA, and his MLB Statcast Pitching Profile illustrates his struggles:

Washington has a higher OPS against right-handed pitching than Seattle over the last two weeks. Despite their losing streak, they've got a great chance to win today.

I'm admittedly scared of the Nationals' bullpen, but the value Gray provides over Flexen is too much to ignore. Thus, I'll be looking to the first five innings moneyline to back Washington. WynnBET has it at -125 and that's the best bet to make in this one.

Pick: Nationals First Five Innings (-125)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.