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Mariners vs. Rangers Prediction and Odds for Saturday, July 16 (Expect Underrated Pitchers' Duel in Texas )

By Ben Heisler

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert faced these same Texas Rangers in early June, going six innings while allowing just one earned run.
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert faced these same Texas Rangers in early June, going six innings while allowing just one earned run. / Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports
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The Seattle Mariners started off the month of July in second-to-last place in the AL West division. Then, the second-largest winning streak in team history took place, now finding themselves amongst the top teams in the AL Wild Card race.

They'll send their best pitcher this season, right-handed Logan Gilbert to the bump in Game 3 of their four-game set with the Texas Rangers. The 25-year old had excellent stuff; striking out seven Toronto Blue Jays in six innings without a walk his last time out, but also gave up four runs in the process.

He's opposed by Rangers top pitching prospect Spencer Howard; making just his fourth start of the season in the Big Leagues. He's coming off his best outing of the year; five innings of one-run ball against the Oakland A's.

Here are the latest odds from consensus sportsbooks for Saturday afternoon in Arlington.

Mariners vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line:

  • Mariners -1.5 (+110)
  • Rangers +1.5 (-130)

Moneyline:

  • Mariners -145
  • Rangers +125

Total:

  • 8.5 (OVER -110 | UNDER -110)

Mariners vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

After the month of April, I was counting my winnings for Gilbert at 70/1 to win the AL Cy Young award. That was slightly premature.

Gilbert's still in contention with a very solid season to this point, but he's had some bumps in the road as well; including his previous outing. In 12.1 innings vs. the Rangers in 2022, he's got a 0.71 ERA with 11 strikeouts and just one walk.

Meanwhile, while Howard's numbers on the surface look rough, he did figure some things out his previous outing; granted it was against a bottom-feeder like the A's. He's got four above average pitches, but only finished with one strikeout; pitching to contact and getting ahead of hitters. Texas has been a mediocre hitting team all season despite their massive offseason spending spree, and while Howard's strikeout numbers are down sizably from this year in the Minors, he has the stuff to get back to getting plenty of swings and misses.

Ultimately, the 8.5 runs feels a tad bit too high, especially with two very talented young pitchers on the mound.

LEAN: UNDER 8.5 (-110)

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