Mariners vs. Rangers Prediction and Odds for Sunday, August 14 (Logan Gilbert is Guilty of Fraud)

The Seattle Mariners are 1.5 games clear of the last Wild Card spot in the American League going into their rubber match with the Texas Rangers today. The Mariners have won two series against the Yankees in August, but are in danger of dropping two of three to the Texas Rangers. 

Seattle has a struggling Logan Gilbert on the mound in this one against the Rangers all-star lefty, Martín Pérez. 

Odds are available for this AL West matchup at WynnBET Sportsbook. 

Mariners vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

• Mariners -1.5 (+140)
• Rangers +1.5 (-170)

Moneyline

• Mariners -117
• Rangers +107

Total

• 7.5 (Over -115 / Under -105)

Mariners vs. Rangers Prediction and Pick

Logan Gilbert’s excellent season has gone up in flames since the calendar turned to August. His last two starts have been disastrous; 5.1 innings, six runs on seven hits August 2 and 4.0 innings, seven runs on 10 hits August 8. In fairness to Gilbert both outings came against the Yankees and the Mariners did win the first of the two, but his ERA has shot up from 2.78 at the end of July to 3.47, which is about where his fielding independent pitching was prior to August. 

He has maybe had the toughest stretch of four straight starts you could possibly have in MLB; two against Houston and two against New York. He fared well against Houston, but Seattle lost both and then New York absolutely pounded him. 

Honestly, when you put Gilbert's 2022 season on trial, his case to be considered a quality starting pitcher does not hold up. This regression was coming for Gilbert and he held it off as long as possible. His hard hit rate is in the fourth percentile of all pitchers, his expected slugging and expected batting average are in the 24th and 27th percentile, and his expected ERA is 4.28. All of his numbers tell you that he is a below average starting pitcher and yet he had a sub-three ERA through July. 

Martin Perez ranks out well above average in xSlugging and xBA, along with a 92nd percentile barrel rate. He has been a much better pitcher than Gilbert and despite a tough outing in his last start, he provides a huge advantage on the mound for Texas. 

Seattle has been playing well, but with Gilbert showing his true colors, they are in serious danger of dropping the rubber match today. The verdict is in, Gilbert is guilty of a fraudulent 2022.

PICK: Rangers +107

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