Betsided

Mariners vs. Red Sox Prediction, Odds and Key Players for Wednesday, July 31

The Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox wrap up their three game series at Fenway Park on Wednesday.

By Benjamin Upson

Jul 30, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Andres Munoz (75) and catcher Cal Raleigh (29) celebrate beating the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
Jul 30, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Andres Munoz (75) and catcher Cal Raleigh (29) celebrate beating the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

The American League is in the spotlight for this matchup between the Seattle Mariners and Boston Red Sox. Their three game series comes to its conclusion on Wednesday at Fenway Park. So far, Seattle has claimed both contests and will aim for the sweep, part of a winning streak they really needed.

This series is at a crucial juncture for both teams post all-star break. The Boston Red Sox continue to fight for positioning in the American League wild card race, while the Seattle Mariners are attempting to fight it out with the Houston Astros in their division the rest of the season. Here’s what you should play in the finale on Wednesday.

Mariners vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

  • Mariners: -1.5 (+140)
  • Red Sox: +1.5 (-160)

Moneyline

  • Mariners: -115
  • Red Sox: -105

Total: 9.5 (Over +100/Under -124)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Mariners vs. Red Sox Betting Trends

  • Mariners are 30-26 following a win this season
  • Red Sox are 26-28 at home this season
  • Mariners are 1-4 in George Kirby’s previous 5 starts
  • Red Sox have lost 7 of last 10 games

Mariners vs. Red Sox: How To Watch

  • Date: Wednesday, July 31st
  • Game Time: 4:10 PM
  • Venue: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
  • How To Watch (TV, Streaming): Root Sports Northwest, NESN, MLB Network (out-of-market), MLB.TV
  • Mariners Record: 57-52
  • Red Sox Record: 56-50

Mariners vs. Red Sox Key Players To Watch

Mariners

Jorge Polanco: One of the more unlikely sources of top Mariners offense has come off the bat of Jorge Polanco. The road trip to Chicago and now Boston has significantly benefitted him with 4 home runs and 8 RBI across the 5 games that have been contested so far. For weeks now, Seattle has just needed a bat in their lineup that can spark the team. Polanco has had a week to remember, in a season where he’s gone .213 with just 10 home runs and 27 RBI. The 31-year-old second baseman is cooking on this East Coast road trip.

Red Sox

Ceddanne Rafaela: The young and savvy roster of the Boston Red Sox has been headlined by center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. He has been an important piece of the Red Sox lineup this season, which has been lacking at some positions. Rafaela has extended his active hitting streak to 6 games. The 23-year-old is batting .255 with 12 home runs and 55 RBI. While he doesn’t necessarily hit for power, he can certainly create contact while also playing some magnificent defense in the outfield. This is a face to watch going forward on this Red Sox team.

Mariners vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Perhaps one of the most impressive feats the Seattle Mariners have pulled off is that they have finally started winning games once again. The catch is that they are without their best player, star center fielder Julio Rodriguez who is absent with an ankle injury. Perhaps the Red Sox already had their big run this season, but this series still very much places two playoff contenders against one another.

On the hill, it’s George Kirby who is a portion of the monster that is the Mariners starting rotation. He has the best strikeout-walk ratio in all of baseball by a mile (9.2 K/BB) and makes opponents work very hard for each pitch they get off him. The numbers read 8-7 with a 3.03 ERA, 129 strikeouts and a string of nine consecutive starts of 6+ innings pitched. Kirby has broken into the top 10 amongst all starters in innings pitched (130.2), a large number that proves his durability. He looks to finish out a stellar July in this one.

The opposite side will be Brayan Bello on the mound for the Red Sox. While the team has been doing a lot of winning lately in games he’s pitched, the numbers don’t truly reflect the whole story. Beyond the 10-5 record, Bello has a 5.27 ERA, 96 strikeouts and 36 walks allowed across 19 starts. He has started logging more innings with 29.1 innings pitched across five starts in July, his most in a month all year. It hasn’t been totally efficient as he’s surrendered three runs in each of the past three starts.

The obvious pick here is to side with the Mariners since Kirby likely outduels Bello. While I do lean Seattle in this situation, I’m going to look under here. It’s a little bit elevated at 9.5 total runs in my opinion. Kirby’s dominance this season really makes this prop look enticing. Both the Mariners and Red Sox have middle of the road bullpens, but I believe the starters will decide this game.

Monday and Tuesday the over sailed to victory easily. This game feels like a different story. It’s earlier in the day, there’s a chance for rain and thunderstorms in the forecast and both teams are due for lower scoring. Generally, 9.5 total runs would be relatively inflated for a pitcher as well-rounded as Kirby. The books are taking into account the added offense and Bello’s struggles. I’ll gladly play the under at a decent price of -124 here (FanDuel).

Pick: Mariners-Red Sox UNDER 9.5 Runs (-124)

Note: Game odds are subject to change.

Home/MLB Prop Bets