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Mariners vs. Twins Prediction and Odds for Monday, April 11 (Value on the Under)

By Reed Wallach

Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton.
Minnesota Twins center fielder Byron Buxton. / Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports
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The Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins have put together an exciting opening series to the 2022 MLB regular season, but we have one more matchup before these teams continue on their way.

The upstart Mariners are 2-1 thus far while the Twins have an emerging MVP candidate in Byron Buxton. Can they scratch to .500 in their opening series? Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook:

Mariners vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Total

Run Line:

  • Mariners: +1.5 (-170)
  • Twins: -1.5 (+140)

Moneyline:

  • Mariners: +115
  • Twins: -125

Total: 9 (Over -120/Under +100)

Mariners vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

In a meeting between teams with a ton of offensive upside, I actually lean towards the under.

Seattle got a career year out of Chris Flexen last season, who is elite at limiting walks (just two walks per 9 innings) and keeps the ball in the park, holding teams below one home run per 9 innings. In Flexen's starts last season, the Mariners went 22-9, and I believe they are a nice wager as a small underdog.

However, my favorite bet is on the under. The Mariners offense has been slow out of the gate, yet to plate more than four runs in a game, and Dylan Bundy should begin his bounce back campaign with a strong performance.

While Bundy got crushed last season, posting an ERA north of six last season, I think he is a prime candidate for some positive regression. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching), which takes out plays made in the field for pitchers earned run average, was nearly a half run less than his ERA and his fly ball to home run rate was almost 20%. That means that one out of five fly balls hit on Bundy was leaving the park.

That's unsustainable in my opinion and I think we see some improvement from Bundy after he signed with the Twins from the Los Angeles Angels. A change of locations can do some good for the right handed pitcher and I think we see a low scoring affair on Monday night.

LEAN: Mariners +115, UNDER 9

You can find all of Reed's bets HERE!

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