Mariners vs. Yankees Prediction and Odds for Tuesday, August 2 (Mariners Undervalued Behind Gilbert on the Road)
By Joe Summers
With a 21-7 record over their last 28 games, the Seattle Mariners find themselves with a Wild Card spot heading into the last two months of MLB's regular season.
This is a huge series with the New York Yankees, the AL's best team, and Logan Gilbert hopes to impress in his biggest start of the campaign. With a 6-1 record and 2.47 ERA on the road, Gilbert has a quality start in six of his last eight outings away from home.
New York labored through July but sends Jameson Taillon to the mound, behind whom its won nine of 10 at home. Taillon had a 5.04 ERA last month though and his underlying metrics are underwhelming.
Can Seattle pull off a huge road win or will Taillon keep rolling at Yankee Stadium?
Let's check out the odds from WynnBET Sportsbook to find the value in this Mariners vs Yankees matchup:
Mariners vs Yankees Odds, Run Line and Total
Run Line:
- Mariners +1.5
- Yankees
Moneyline:
- Mariners
- Yankees
Total:
- Total (Over X/Under X)
Mariners vs Yankees Prediction and Pick
The loss of Julio Rodriguez hurts the Mariners' lineup, but Logan Gilbert can make up the slack on the mound.
Mariners pitchers age 25-or-younger to tally 10+ wins and 100+ strikeouts with a sub-3.00 ERA over their first 20 starts in a season:
— Mariners PR (@MarinersPR) July 28, 2022
🔹Logan Gilbert-2022: 10 W, 2.77 ERA, 112 K
🔹Felix Hernández-2009: 11 W, 2.45 ERA, 137 K
Gilbert has been extremely impressive, actually posting a lower FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) at 3.43 than Yankees' starter Jameson Taillon (3.68) on the year. In fact, he's had a FIP lower than 3.6 for four consecutive starts, a feat Taillon accomplished just one in that stretch.
Logan Gilbert, K'ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/bkvaZKPSK6
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 23, 2022
Something is off with Taillon. He's thrown six innings just twice in his last nine starts, amassing a 5.40 ERA over those outings. Taillon is in just the 19th percentile in expected batting average and I can't trust him, despite the strong record at home.
I like the value on Seattle as an underdog with Gilbert providing an advantage over Taillon. Against teams besides the Houston Astros, the Mariners had 17 straight wins coming into this series. They're on an absurd stretch, and I'll keep backing them even without Julio.
Pick: Mariners
Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.