Betsided

Mariners' World Series Hopes Rest on Shoulders of Robbie Ray, Logan Gilbert

By Ben Heisler

Seattle signed pitcher Robbie Ray to a 5-year, $115 million contract to help the Mariners return to the postseason for the first time since 2001.
Seattle signed pitcher Robbie Ray to a 5-year, $115 million contract to help the Mariners return to the postseason for the first time since 2001. / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

The Seattle Mariners were two games away from ending the longest playoff drought in baseball in 2021.

Despite a negative run differential of minus-51 and expected win projection of 76-86, Seattle grinded its way to a 90-72 season, led by a remarkable 33 wins in one-run games.

Rather than worry if they might regress to the mean, general manager Jerry Dipoto took an aggressive stand this offseason and moved the Mariners into full contender mode. Their free agency plans included signing American League Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray from the Toronto Blue Jays, while also acquiring All Star outfielder Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suárez from the Cincinnati Reds. They also bring back former Pittsburgh Pirates All Star Adam Frazier from a season ago.

The moves for Winker and Suárez are nice, but it's the Ray signing that could pay the highest dividends for Seattle to make a run not just for the postseason, but for the division as well.

Robbie Ray and Logan Gilbert Could Be This Year's Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff

The Mariners' win total at WynnBET Sportsbook is currently listed at 85.5, juiced evenly at -110 on both sides. Their success, or lack thereof, is likely to go with the strength of the top of their rotation.

Ray's Cy Young campaign in Toronto was exceptional. He led the American league in four separate categories: ERA (2.84), strikeouts (248), WHIP (1.05) as well as innings pitched. Ironically enough, he only won 13 games a season ago, tying Mariners' legend Felix Hernandez for the fewest wins in AL Cy Young history.

WynnBET Sportsbook currently has Ray at +1200 to repeat as the Cy Young winner in the AL, only trailing Gerrit Cole of the Yankees (+450) and Guardians starter Shane Bieber (+800).

However, there's another name worth considering on the board at WynnBET that bettors may want to take note of, and if he hits his ceiling, Mariners fans may have their own combination of the Brewers' Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff; the former winning the NL Cy Young in 2021.

24-year old Logan Gilbert (+7000 to win the AL Cy Young) is a future star that could cement himself at the top of the rotation as early as this year.

Gilbert, in 24 starts last year, threw 119.1 innings with an ERA of 4.68 and a strikeout rate of 9.7 batters per nine innings.

Sports Illustrated's Shawn Childs wrote up Gilbert as his breakout pitcher of 2022, citing his electric stuff, and positive regression to the mean likely coming this season. Childs shared that while the ERA was high, "his WHIP (1.173) suggested his ERA should be closer to 3.50 if he didn’t allow a few too many home runs (1.3 per nine). Gilbert finished with a plus strikeout rate (9.7) and elite command (2.1 walks per nine). He offers a high 90s fastball and an electric slider while developing his changeup."

A season ago in Milwaukee, Burnes started 28 games; pitching to a 2.43 ERA with 234 strikeouts in 167 innings. Woodruff, despite a 9-10 record, started 30 games with a 2.56 ERA, wracking up 211 strikeouts in 179.1 innings.

If Gilbert plays to his upside, and Ray continues his dominance, don't be surprised to see the Mariners carried to not just the postseason, but above their projected Vegas win total as well.

Follow all of Ben Heisler's betting plays in real-time HERE

Home/MLB Odds