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Marlins vs. Angels Prediction and Odds for Monday, April 11 (No First Inning Runs With Value)

By Joe Summers

The Marlins offense hops to break out as they host the Angels today
The Marlins offense hops to break out as they host the Angels today / Thearon W. Henderson/GettyImages
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The 1-3 Los Angeles Angels host the 1-2 Miami Marlins today at 9:38 PM EST as both teams are looking for a spark on offense.

Each of Miami's first three games have been decided by one run, but their offense mustered just four runs in their last two. The Angels were even worse, scoring only three runs over the last two days and amassing 10 in their initial four games.

Los Angeles sends Michael Lorenzen to the mound today. Primarily a reliever, Lorenzen posted a 5.59 ERA last year, but his 4.01 expected ERA implies he was unlucky.

The Marlins will counter with Elieser Hernandez, a 26-year-old righty out of Venezuela. Hernandez had a 4.18 ERA in 11 starts last season but has power stuff. He struck out 53 batters over 51.1 innings in 2021 and looked great in spring training, striking out six over six scoreless innings.

Can either offense get going today? Let's check out the odds from WynnBET to help us find out ahead of this Marlins vs Angels matchup:

Marlins vs Angels Odds, Run Line and Total

Run Line

  • Marlins +1.5 (-165)
  • Angels -1.5 (+135)

Moneyline:

  • Marlins: +125
  • Angels: -135

Total:

  • 9.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Marlins vs Angels Prediction and Pick

We've got a unique matchup today, as both pitchers are dominant the first time through a lineup but falter once batters get a second crack at them. As a result, instead of looking to the full game for action, I'm going to the first inning.

WynnBET allows you to bet on results from the entire game and results throughout inning splits. You can bet on the total and spread in the first inning, first three innings, first five innings, and first seven innings. It's a neat way to have action spread throughout a game and I'm thrilled WynnBET gives us the opportunity.

For today's bet, I'm going with no runs scored in the first inning. Both offenses have struggled and both pitchers are in good position to excel early on. Hernandez had a 1.64 ERA in the first inning in 2021 but faltered the longer he went in games. Lorenzen, meanwhile, allowed just a .145 batting average to the first three batters in a lineup last year.

But, both pitchers had ERAs over 4.00, so they weren't so successful after that initial inning.

It's lucky for us, then, that we're getting plus money on the under 0.5 total runs scored in the first inning. Since 2018, Hernandez has a 25-7 "No Runs First Inning" record while Lorenzen went 5-0 last year.

With two offenses lacking pop and two pitchers that excel early on, I'm jumping all over the under 0.5 first inning runs and suggest you do the same.

Pick: Under 0.5 First Inning Runs (+110)

Follow all of Joe Summers' betting picks here.

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