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Marlins vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for Saturday, June 11 (Garrett Struggles Continue Against Houston)

By Matt De Saro

New York Mets v Miami Marlins
New York Mets v Miami Marlins / Mark Brown/GettyImages
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I saw a lot of buzz surrounding the recent sweep by the Miami Marlins as a sign that this team is turning things around. But something that those “experts” and homers failed to mention is that the Marlins swept the Washington Nationals. Washington has the potential to finish with the worst record in baseball and can’t buy a win and is 3-5 so far in June. 

The same goes for the Astros in fact as the pair are set to face off on Saturday afternoon in Miami. The Astros have picked up the pace recently as well. But, they were beating up on Texas, Cleveland, Oakland, and Kansas City. I’m more interested in their most recent series where they lost two of three to the Seattle Mariners. Losing to bad teams is much more telling than beating them after all. 

Here are the odds for this game from consensus sportsbooks. 

Marlins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Marlins: +1.5 (+105)
  • Astros: -1.5 (-125)

Moneyline:

  • Marlins: +215
  • Astros: -265

Total:

  • Total 8.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Marlins vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

While I don’t think the Astros are as good as their current record suggests, they are significantly better than the Marlins. I would consider Miami a strong underdog with the right arm on the mound. Unfortunately, Braxton Garrett is not that arm. The 24-year-old southpaw will make his second start of the year for the Marlins after a brutal debut last weekend. Garrett gave up four earned runs on five hits in 3 ⅓ innings against the San Francisco Giants. This is on-brand for Garrett who, in 10 career starts, has a 5.60 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. 

On the flip side, Framber Valdez will start for the Astros this afternoon and has been very impressive this year. Sporting a 2.61 ERA and 1.13 WHIP, Valdez has quickly become a key part of this rotation. He hasn’t given up more than three runs in a start since mid-April and is averaging over six strikeouts per game over the last month of play. 

This is a classic mismatch, both at the plate and on the mound. I don’t think Miami is heading in the right direction and am happy to take the Astros to dominate this matchup. 

Pick: Astros -1.5 (-125)

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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