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Marlins vs. Astros Prediction and Odds for Sunday, June 12 (Boldly Fade Justin Verlander at Home)

By Matt De Saro

Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners
Houston Astros v Seattle Mariners / Stephen Brashear/GettyImages
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The Miami Marlins look to close out this series against the Houston Astros the same way they started it, with a win. Miami beat up on Houston a bit on Friday and walked away with a 7-4 win over the first-place Astros. Today, some see a massive pitching mismatch and an easy win for Houston. I am not so sure, despite the obvious talent on the mound. 

Here are the odds for this game. 

Marlins vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, and Total

Run Line

  • Marlins: +1.5 (-110)
  • Astros: -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline:

  • Marlins: +190
  • Astros: -235

Total:

  • 8 (Over -115/Under -105)

Marlins vs. Astros Prediction and Pick

When I first looked at the odds for this game I could understand why the Astros were so heavily favored. Then I saw that Justin Verlander was starting today for Houston and It all became crystal clear. Verlander continues to defy critics, age, and at times it seems even the laws of physics with his work on the mound. The 39-year-old first-ballot Hall of Famer enters this game with a 2.13 ERA and an astonishing 0.84 WHIP in 71 ⅔ innings. One small knock on Verlander is that he hasn’t pitched against a single good offense this season aside from one game against the Blue Jays -- a game that Houston lost. Verlander has enjoyed four starts against Seattle, two against Texas, and one against the Nationals so far this year. 

The Marlins are not a bad offense and rank 10th in the league in batting average and 15th in runs. Not elite, but nowhere near as bad as some of the teams that Verlander has been feasting on. They have a bit of hope on the mound today with Edward Cabrera having a fantastic start to the year. It was a late start, but Cabrera is 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in 12 innings. However, much like Verlander, his starts came against bad offenses from Washington and Colorado.  

There is no question who the better team is or who the better pitcher is in this game. But, which team has the best betting value here? I would say the Marlins do. Jazz Chisholm is coming off his second multi-home run game this week and I really like what I’ve seen from Cabrera so far early on. Furthermore, the Astros are 2-4 in their last six games with losses to the Royals and Mariners. This is more of a gamble than a prediction in some ways but I like the fade of Verlander and the Astros here. 

Pick: Marlins +190 ML

Follow all of Matt De Saro’s betting picks HERE

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